11/21/21 Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

All week I’ve been thinking to myself, the books are giving me +2.5 for the Cowboys. This line is supposed to be telling me that these are even teams and the Chiefs are getting the home field advantage. And most certainly, if you’ve been watching, these aren’t even teams. I have the Cowboys ranked just a half point better than the Chiefs. It’s also important to note that this Dallas defense has played over their heads and are not as good as they appear. Turnovers are great but they are random and things regress back to the mean. Patrick Mahomes should be able to get going against Dallas. If this does turn into a shootout, how can I not like the Chiefs at home in the cold? Dallas is down Amari Cooper but I do not think that will make much of a difference. I’m more concerned with Tyron Smith and Randy Gregory being out. I think that the books are trying to trap us into playing the Cowboys here. Gimmie the Chiefs under a FG at home.