8/2/20
Arizona Diamondbacks (M. Kelly - R) + 176 over LA Dodgers (C. Kershaw - L)
I’ll keep this one simple. Merrill Kelly looked good against the Rangers last time out. The Dbacks are trying to split the series with the Dodgers, the class of the division. You have Kershaw coming back after an emergency scratch for Opening Day. I love the value here. We haven’t seen Kershaw pitch yet this year. We have no idea if he’s in proper form. On the road, on a getaway day, give me the plus number with the starter who has already shined and gotten some reps this year.
8/3/20
Cincinnati Reds (S. Gray - R) vs. Cleveland Indians (Z. Plesac - R) u8 (EV)
Going to take the under on this battle of Ohio. Sonny Gray has had two great outings, while Plesac was dominant in his last start. Both teams have had a hard time scoring runs lately. The interleague contest will have the sides unfamiliar with each other. I like for this one to be low scoring.
8/4/20
Colorado Rockies (G. Marquez - R) -164 over SF Giants (K. Gausman - R)
I’m laying the chalk with Colorado here. This Giants team may be the worst team in baseball. New manager, Posey opting out, a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of, a 300lb+ Panda batting under .100. This team is a mess. Even with Longoria back, they can’t hit (except maybe Solano). Their “best” pitcher Cueto went yesterday and today they are trotting out Gausman - no thanks. Rockies -164.
8/5/20
Chicago Cubs(Y. Darvish - R) -199 over KC Royals (K. Bubic - L)
What a square I am. Laying chalk again - two days in a row! Give me the Cubs to remain scorching hot over this god-awful Royals team. Yu Darvish is set to have his will against this paltry Royals lineup. I’m aware this is a big number to lay but this Royals team is a fade until they can show something, anything this year.
8/6/20
Philadelphia Phillies (Z. Elfin - R) +1.5 over NY Yankees (J. Montgomery - L)
I like the Phillies at home today after splitting two 7 inning contests with the Yankees yesterday. I think that all these games, make-ups or otherwise, in a row are going to benefit the pitchers. Last night the Yankees ran into Aaron Nola, who pitched a solid 6 innings of 1 run ball. Tonight, they will see Zack Elfin make his first start of the year. Elfin shut out the Yankees back in 2018. I love when a pitcher is making his first start of the year against a team that doesn’t see him often. I’m taking the run line here for the Phillies to keep it close.
8/6/20
Portland Trailblazers -4 (-110)over Denver Nuggets
Dame Lillard is a competitive SOB. The Blazers are 1 game out of the playoff hunt behind the Grizzlies. Denver is clinched and really doesn’t have much to play for here. Denver played yesterday in a shootout (132 - 126 vs. Memphis). The Blazers did not play yesterday. The Blazers and their competitive alpha are rested and hungry. -4 in NBA is basically win the game. OK, give me the Blazers to win the game.
8/7/20
Real Madrid +1 (-105) over Manchester City
Today we go over to the Champions League, which just restarted. I can almost hear the Champions League theme in my head as I write this. Man City is up 2-1 coming into this 2nd and final leg of the Round of 16, which they are hosting at the Etihad. This tournament is why Pep was hired at City. They have a 1 goal aggregate edge at home, which given the way they’ve been playing lately might seem insurmountable. No Sergio Aguero for City, which given their amount of firepower shouldn’t be a huge deal. As we know Zidane had City winning 3 straight European titles prior to his Real exit. He’s back now and his back is against the wall. I like for Real to keep this competitive with their experience. I’ll be taking the +1 in the Champions League return.
8/8/20
Baltimore Orioles (T. Eshelman - R) / Washington Nationals (A. Voth - R) over 9.5 -110
While we normally try to avoid overs, as that is almost always the square side, today I am on the over in this game. Two bottom of the rotation pitchers here, with one guy (Voth) kicking around the minors for 6 years before being called up last year. Pretty humid night in DC should help the ball carry a bit more. Factor that in with the Orioles blowing out the much better Nationals team last night. I am expecting some scoring here. Normally, I would just take the First Five over, however, with the new extra inning rules giving teams an automatic runner on 2nd - most of my over plays will be full game.
8/9/20
Colorado Rockies (G. Marquez - R) -142 over Seattle Mariners (J. Sheffield - L)
Justus Sheffield has pitched two games this year. He has not made it out of the 4th inning in either while giving up 4 hits and 4 runs in each. Seattle is a bad team. I am actively betting against bad teams during this short, strange season. The Rockies are one of the early on surprises during this season, sporting the best record in the majors. Give me the Rockies to get the W on this get away day.
8/10/20
Arizona Diamondbacks (R. Ray - L) +126 over Colorado Rockies (J. Gray - R)
After an absolutely awful start, the D-backs seem to be getting back on track. I really think this line is indicative of the torrid start for the Rockies and the hideous start for Arizona. I really think this game should be more along the lines of a pick’em. Robbie Ray has been walking batters at the highest rate of his career in his first 3 starts. I don’t think that is a trend that holds up. Also, I liked Arizona as a dark horse in this shortened season and they struggled mightily coming out to the box, depressing their value in the betting lines. Today I will be backing the Backs at +126.
8/11/20
LA Angels (D. Bundy - R) -158 over Oakland A’s (M. Fiers - R)
Dylan Bundy is having himself a year so far. Career lows, thus far, in walks allowed, HRs allowed, ERA and xFIP. Maybe all he needed was out of Baltimore, who knew? Mike Fiers, on the other hand, is not striking out opponents on par with his career average. I was on the Angels coming into the season - even picking them at a nice number to win this division. That has not played out like I thought. The Angels are in the cellar, while the A’s are the pride of the AL West. Well, I’m going to go contrarian here and take the Angels of Anaheim of LA of California. Mike Trout just came of quite a night and is heating up - I look for that to continue.
8/12/20
Cleveland Indians (Carlos Carrasco - R) -119 over Chicago Cubs (K. Hendricks - R)
Today I am on the Tribe because Cleveland Rocks! No, no, it really doesn’t. It’s because everyone is riding the Cubs train this year. They came out of the gate super hot. They have lost only 3 games thus far and are sporting a .786 winning percentage. While Kyle Hendricks and Carrasco have a similar xFIP, Carrasco does have a lower ERA. This is just more of a fade the public play. The Cubs are one of the 3 most public MLB teams, while no one likes backing the Indians (I took them to win their division prior to the start of the season). Gimmie Cleveland at home, as I look for some Cubs regression.
8/13/20
Dallas Mavericks +9 over Phoenix Suns
Today we visit a great lesson in handicapping: the so-called must win game. This is when one team (the Suns) have everything to play for and another (the Mavericks) have nothing to play for. The must win team usually receives an inflated line (9 points), while the other team is locked in to some scenario (Mavs are playing the Clippers in the playoffs). Throw in the fact that the Suns have been undefeated in the bubble and Devin Booker looks like Michael Jordan, and we have ourselves a public vs. sharp play. Yes, Porzingis and Seth Curry are out, yes, the Suns have just been clobbering teams and yes, there is a faint hope of the playoffs. Disregard all that, this number is high and I’m fading it. Gimmie the Mavs +9
8/14/20
Bayern Munich -195 TO ADVANCE over FC Barcelona
Today we head over to Lisbon for the Champions League Quarters. I am taking Bayern Munich, the best team in the Bundesliga, to advance over Barcelona. Don’t let the whole Messi, Suarez, Griezmann, etc. lineup of stars fool you, Barca can be beaten. They are facing a team in Bayern that has not lost a single contest in the CL tourney this year. They are the gem of a very underrated German league with multiple stars of their own (Coutinho, Lewandowski, Alcantara). Keep in mind this is a TO ADVANCE bet - so I’m paying up the extra juice in case they win in Extra Time or PKs.
8/15/20
Washington Nationals (P. Corbin - L) -175 over Baltimore Orioles (A. Wojciechowski -R)
The Nationals travel down the Beltway tonight to take on the surprising Orioles. Who thought the O’s would be two games back of the Yankees after a third of the season?? Not me. Anyways, Patrick Corbin has been sharp this year with an ERA of 2.50 and an xFIP of 3.01. He’s striking out batters at a clip of 10 per 9 innings and just walking 1.50 per that span. Asher howeveryousayhisname is not as good giving up 1.98 HRs/9 innings and has an xFIP of 4.65. I think the Nats touch him up tonight. Gimmie the defending champs.
8/16/20
Arizona Diamondbacks (R. Ray - L) +107 over San Diego Padres (G. Richards -R)
If you’ve been following along, you already know I like backing the Dbacks. I love me some Robbie Ray, even though his stats have reversed from seasons past. He’s been absolutely burned by the deep ball this year, giving up more than double the amount of HRs. Well, as we’ve found out, Arizona has begun using humidors on the baseballs in their park. This should make the balls travel less. Conversely, this isn’t the same Garrett Richards from his Angels glory days, he’s gotten considerably worse in the past few years. I expect the Padres slide to continue. I’m taking the Snakes for the sweep today.