11/21/21 Best Bet: Houston Texans +10.5 (-115)

The Tennessee Titans have been on quite a run. They have beaten 5 playoff teams from last year in consecutive weeks. That has to be some sort of precedent. Sometimes they’ve dominated and other times it was luck (Josh Allen slipping on the goal line) or beneficial calls (Saints last week). Either way, this team is average at best. The defense is not as good as they seem, they are 12th overall DVOA and are particularly bad against the run (25th). Also, they are down Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. At some point this has to catch up with them. Sometimes, you just don’t have any difference making dudes. I get Houston coming off of a bye after a disastrous performance from Tyrod Taylor. He turned over the ball A LOT in their last game with Miami and he historically is not that careless with the ball. I get a Houston team that hasn’t won a game since week 1 in a divisional match up. I think this might be a let down spot for Tennessee. Remember this team lost outright to the NY Jets. I even took a little moneyline on this game. Do not put this in your suicide pool.