11/18/21 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +7 (-105)

The Buffalo Bills are 6-3 and are tied as the overall favorite to win the SuperBowl. Their 6 wins have come by beating the Dolphins twice, Washington, Houston, the Jets and the Chiefs. While the Chiefs are looking better, that win might not be as impressive as it seems. I have not been impressed by anything I’ve seen from Josh Allen this year. His accuracy is off (66% this year, down from 69% last year) and he hasn’t really gotten Diggs going. Last week was the exception but they were playing the lowly Jets coming off of an awful loss to the Jags. As for the Colts, they’ve righted the ship by winning four of the last five. If not for a HORRIFIC Carson Wentz late game collapse to the Titans, they would have won their last five and also beaten what is considered the “second best team in the AFC”. This week they are playing the Bills, who are considered the best team in the AFC. The Colts defense is ranked 10th overall but tend to struggle against the pass. I think they will double up Diggs and dare either Cole Beasley or Manny Sanders to beat them. Indy will run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and chew clock. I think this game will be closer than most people think. Give me the full touchdown with the Colts. Throw a little on the moneyline too.