NY Jets +8.5 (-110)

Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL, where you should generally fade whatever you saw last week. There’s always an overreaction. Sometimes it’s to performance (see: Cowboys). Sometimes it’s to sentiment (see: Jets). In this game we have both. Hear me out, there is a difference between Aaron Rodgers and Zach Wilson. I have it at about 5.5 points to be exact. So while the 3.5 point spread to an 8.5 point spread makes sense now that we know it’s Zach Wilson, we also have to build in the Jets defense, which looks to be the real deal. We also have to build in the Cowboys not really doing much on offense last week. Add in the Jets defense being high for this game coming off of a win (before they quit on Zach Wilson…because he stinks). Last but not least, the total for this game is 38.5. I’m getting 8.5 points in a game with such a low total - that’s basic strategy. J-E-T-S to C-O-V-E-R.