NFC North Preview
Green Bay Packers (o10.5 -150 / u10.5 +120) -160 to win NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (o9 -110 / u9 -110) +250 to win NFC North
Chicago Bears (o7.5 -105 / u7.5 -115) +550 to win NFC North
Detroit Lions (o4.5 -150 / u4.5 +120) +2800 to win NFC North
The NFC North is favoring the Packers again this year. This could be the last year for Aaron Rodgers and/or Davante Smith. Outside of the Packers, the two-time division defending champion, this is a division full of questions. Can the Vikings defense take a step forward? Is Justin Fields going to be the man for the Bears? How long does the Chicago regime keep their jobs if Fields isn’t starting and succeeding? Are the Lions the worst team in football? Is this strictly a rebuilding year for them?
With the dual social media postings of the iconic Last Dance picture with Jordan and Pippen, both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams committed for at least one more year with the Packers. As you can imagine, this makes a world of difference, not only because Rodgers played at an MVP level or Adams is in the conversation for best receivers in the league. It’s because of good old WAR (wins above replacement). You can’t just replace Rodgers with Jordan Love. That would be an 8-point change in the spread. The Packers have managed to win 13 games both of the last two years. That’s hard to match, even in a 17-game season. However, they just need to get to 11 for the over and I think that’s not much to ask, if Rodgers heart is in it. And I think it will be. He’s the type of guy that likes a chip on his shoulder, see last year (and generally his entire career). He loves sticking it to people and I think that will be his mindset this year. The division schedule gives the Packers two free wins (the Lions) but is pretty difficult, with games at Baltimore and at Kansas City. The defense was middle of the pack last year and hasn’t gotten much better. The Packers need to stay healthy and win games with offense, and I think they will, just not enough to wager on it. Regression might rear it’s ugly head this year and I think there’s a real scenario that the Packers can win this division with 10 wins (or less). Pass. (It should go without saying there’s no value in betting Rodgers to win back to back MVPs).
The Vikings are lined at 9 wins for the season. This is such a perfect number for this team. If the very young defense takes a step forward from last year’s 18th overall DVOA, this has the potential to be a very complete team. The offense is still showcasing stars in Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, who are both in the conversation as top 5 at their respective positions. Out is Kyle Rudloph, who will be replaced by a very capable Irv Smith. Adam Thielen is old in WR years but still has talent that should keep the chains moving. And say what you will about Kirk Cousins, he’s always middle of the pack with the ceiling of a top 10 guy. I like what the Vikings have been doing the last couple of years. Most importantly, I like Mike Zimmer, he’s a defensive minded coach that should coach up a young defense. And, he covers. He’s north of 56% in covering and that’s what matters. I feel that the Vikings will be in the mix for the division all season alongside the Packers. I don’t think there’s enough value in the +250 to win the division. But I like the over wins. Vikings o9 wins -110.
This is the last chance for Matt Nagy, Ryan Pace and this Bears administration. They need to at least get to the playoffs again this year or the team will clean house. You would think for a team that made it to the playoffs last year, the pressure shouldn’t be on. But alas, a .500 finish, a poor playoff showing (again) and no clear cut QB has everyone on the hot seat. The Bears pulled off a trade with the Giants and were able to snag Justin Fields with a first round pick. While it’s obvious to any sentient being that Fields will be the QB at some point this season, Nagy is still insisting that Andy Dalton will start. This might be for the best, as the Bears early schedule is pointing to a rocky start for the Red Rifle with 2 of the first 3 games on the road to the Rams and Browns. This way, there’s a scenario where Nagy can bring in Fields at home against the lowly Lions in Week 4 and get the young kid some confidence. I like what I’ve seen from Fields in the preseason (and at Ohio State) but the NFL is not gentle and there will a big learning curve. The defense loses Kyle Fuller, an integral piece, in a secondary that is now average at best. The front seven will be strong with Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Robert Quinn. I think the defense will still be the cornerstone of the team. I have plenty of questions about this offense. Set aside the QB debate that will result in Fields eventually being the starter, there’s not a great deal of talent here. I’m not sold on David Montgomery (and actually think we will see a lot of Damien Williams this year) or Tarik Cohen. Allen Robinson is great but will see consistent double teams, as Darnell Mooney is not scaring defensive coordinators. It’s finally Cole Kmet’s time to shine at TE but he will need to take a massive step forward to be a factor. There’s just too many questions about this team and things can go north or south quickly. Hard to get a beat. Pass.
Detroit is going to be bad this year. It’s only going to be a matter of how bad. Matt Stafford has been replaced by Jared Goff. Kenny Golladay is gone to the Giants, Marvin Jones to the Jaguars and the receiving corps is young and devoid of talent. Matt Patricia and his pencil have been replaced by Dan Campbell and his affinity for kneecaps. While the NFL has had a good history of rah-rah type coaches succeeding, this might not be one of those stories. There’s just not enough talent on this team. The shining star is the offensive line (ranked 10th by ETR) who just drafted Penei Sewell. It’s admirable that they are trying to protect the QB but what QB are they protecting? Jared Goff took at team to the SuperBowl and was competitive in that SuperBowl all the way through. I believe that Goff is a product of McVay’s offensive schemes, which he will not get with the dynamic duo of Dan Campbell and Anthony Lynn (offensive coordinator). Take a look at Goff’s rookie season under Jeff Fisher. Not pretty. Also, not pretty: the receiver room of the Lions. Brashad Perriman, Quentiz Cephus, Tyrell Williams and Amon Ra St. Brown. The last guy is not a fictional character from Power, I swear. None of these guys is an alpha. All of these guys are middling, at best. Goff will not be throwing them open. This could get ugly. TJ Hockenson is very good at TE and should be their main pass catcher. The RB room was improved with the addition of Jamaal Williams being paired with the emerging talent of Deandre Swift. This defense is, well, it’s the worst, statistically. They were last in defense last year. Their 1st round (3rd pick of the whole entire draft, over Herbert and Tua!!!!!) pick, Jeff Okudah, looks to be a major bust. The defense is a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of (for purely bad reasons) and Jaime Collins. This is gonna sound square to take the second lowest total on the board under, but I can’t take this team over. I don’t know what scenario needs to happen to have them winning 5 games; I just know it wont’ happen. Lions u4.5 -150.