AFC North Preview

Baltimore Ravens (o11 +100 / u11 -120) +115 to win AFC North

Cleveland Browns (o10.5 -110 / u10.5 -110) +150 to win AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (o8.5 +120 / u8.5 -140) +500 to win AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals (o6.5 +100 / u6.5 -120) +2500 to win AFC North

We are heading north for this edition; the AFC North to be exact. This division has been run by the Ravens and the Steelers for years, but does a new challenger emerge? The Browns are coming off a playoff run that saw them just barely lose to the Chiefs. And now they are in year two of the Kevin Stefanski system looking to go further. Pittsburgh is not the power they once were. The Steelers will have to fight to get into the playoffs this year. The Bengals, while still yearning for respectability, have many holes and a lot riding on their young QB coming off of a major knee injury.

The Ravens are one of the best coached teams in the NFL. This is something that is consistent with them, while also making them a perennial power. Baltimore is solid on offense, defense and special teams. Harbaugh was a former special teams coach and keeps his team in his image. If there is something you had to nitpick about the Ravens, it would be their subpar throwing / receiving game. The Ravens tried to address this by drafting Rashod Bateman – aaaaand he’s already hurt. Baltimore wins with their running game, which stems from Lamar Jackson’s creativity. The knock on Lamar and this team, is they can’t get it done in the playoffs. And I have to agree that’s right. Ever since losing to Tennessee a few years ago in the playoffs, the good defenses have figured out that if you sell out to stop the run and Lamar’s RPO, then Lamar has to throw. And Lamar has been unable to get it done. I think the edge with the Ravens is to bet them against poor teams. They seem to be very proficient against bad teams, normally blowing them out. Any defense that can’t get good pressure on Lamar (while keeping him in the pocket), is going to be shit out of luck. I’m not interested in any future on this team, as they have proven over and over again that this system, as constructed, doesn’t have the finishing instinct to take it all. I certainly don’t like the over 11 wins, as I am unsure how this team will look with their reconstructed offensive and defensive lines.

It was just a few years ago, when I got the notification that OBJ was traded to the Browns, that I furiously started betting the Browns to win the SuperBowl and the AFC title. True story. I thought they were stacked. Well, its two years later and I say this with no bit of hyperbole: save for the QB, the Cleveland Browns have the best roster in the NFL. Everyone knows the basics, Baker (the weak link?), Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Beckham coming back, Landry, Austin Hooper, etc. But the offensive line (#2 per Establish the Run) is good too! The defense still has Myles Garrett and has added help in the secondary. Pound for (dog) pound, this is the best team in the AFC. If Mayfield takes a step forward, this is quite possibly the best team in the NFL. I think the public sentiment to fade the Browns comes from years of conditioning and the past couple of years of let downs. Well, I think this year is ripe for Cleveland. The Ravens are still unproven in the playoffs and sort of unproven against good teams generally (read above). The Steelers are going to take a step back (read below). And I am not sold on the Bengals, as their biggest question marks are still questions (read sideways, if you care about the Bengals). I am a Kevin Stefanski fan – dude is a winner who is running the perfect offense for this team. The entire team seems bought in and I really think Beckham has something to prove. I’m all in on The Land. FYI, all future bets should be placed at books where you can Cash out (this is an awesome feature). Browns o10.5 wins -110. Browns +150 to win AFC North. Browns +800 to win AFC. Browns +1600 to win SuperBowl. Baker Mayfield +3500 to win MVP.

Pittsburgh is the model NFL franchise. Consistent winners over the years. Coaches that stay forever. Cool uniforms and an awesome fanbase. Mike Tomlin, going on year 15, has never done worse than .500. That’s not Bill Belichick but that’s not exactly Al Groh either. He went .500 with Mason Rudolph and Duck fucking Hodges! It helps that he’s had Big Ben the entirety of that time. Shocker: it helps to have a quarterback in the NFL. It now looks like this is going to be Ben’s last season in the league. I’m not sure if the Steelers would not have been better served with Ben retiring. They are in “win now” mode and re-signed JuJu on a favorable one year deal. They drafted their RB of the future (Najee Harris) in Round 1. They have two young WRs coming back in their year 2 seasons (historically when WRs take a big jump). The defense was ranked #1 DVOA last year. There’s a lot of favorable factors to bet on the Steelers. But I’m gonna make the case against. Ben is 39 and doesn’t look or move the same anymore. The quick out, short slant pass, out of the shotgun offense he ran last year was a) not that good b) being replaced by new OC Matt Canada and c) moving Ben under the center. Combine this with the offensive line being bottom of the league (28th per ETR). The defensive line lost Bud Dupree and gained Melvin Ingram. They will still be top 5 in the league and will get to the QB. Overall, I think the Steelers are primed for a regression and their first sub .500 Tomlin season. The division is too good. Ben won’t be good enough and that’s even if he holds up given this offensive line. Pittsburgh is up against the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL (per Warren Sharp). Yea, I’m out on this team. Steelers u8.5 -140. Steelers to Make Playoffs – NO -175.  

Everyone and their mother thinks Cincy should get better this year. Burrow was everything that was advertised and more last year prior to getting hurt. But his injury was sadly foreseeable. The Bengals chose to put their most valued piece, a number one overall draft pick, the future of the franchise, behind a bullshit offensive line. It caught up to Burrow in November when he blew out his knee. Cincy expects Burrow to be the same player he was when he went down. I just don’t see it. This is a poorly run organization. Yea, I get it, Burrow wanted his buddy, Ja’Marr Chase on the team, so Bengals picked him. But how do you pass on Penei Sewell, a potential generational talent when you have that glaring of a hole? They did at least get rid of Bobby Hart and BJ Finney while adding Riley Reiff and Jackson Carman in the draft. They are still projected to be in the last quarter in offensive lines. Their defense stunk last year (27th DVOA) and didn’t get much better. In fact, they lost a good corner in William Jackson to boot. I think Zac Taylor got his job because he was in a frat with Sean McVay or something. He has shown me NOTHING in the last two years to merit his employment past game 17 this year. Did I mention the word about Burrow out of camp has been horrible? Dude is not yet comfortable to make the type of throws he needs to. He’s only 9 months off an injury that takes about a year to recover from. At 6.5 games for their season total and being in this division with all these good teams and Pittsburgh (their arch nemeis), there are no easy games. Bengals u6.5 +100.