Week 3 NFL Power Rankings
A little late this week but posting for the followers.
There is a logjam at the top with 3 NFC teams. Funny how the consensus was that the AFC is the better conference, yet 3 NFC teams are at the top. Philly is probably the weakest of the 3 with all of their defensive injuries. However, until proven otherwise, they deserve to be at the top.
The bottom is undoubtedly the Chicago Bears. What a complete dumpster fire. Betting their win total of 7.5 under will be the easiest money I make all year. I really still can’t wrap my head around why anyone thought this team would be better. The defense is trash. There’s one 2.5 legitimate skill position playmakers on the team…and Fields is unable to throw them the ball. The Cardinals are playing better than expected, however, this will only get worse from here.
The only numbers I will be strongly looking at coming out of this weekend will be the Bengals and the Steelers. If Joe Burrow isn’t right, I’m going to have to make a sharp downgrade to Cincy. And the Steelers are not impressive. Yea, they “won” against the Browns…by not advancing the ball into the Browns 30 yard line once in the game. That is the reason for power rankings. That win was an absolute fluke. It took 2 defensive TDs and one very long YAC play and they barely won.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Eagles are currently my highest rated team and they are 8.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Eagles played the Chargers, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Philadelphia is playing the Chargers in Los Angeles, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 7 point favorite (accounting for a Chargers 1-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 4 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 2.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 6 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.