Week 1 2023 NFL Power Ratings
The season is finally upon us. Below are my power rankings. These should be used to generate your OWN point spreads and to bet accordingly.
Not surprisingly, the Eagles lead the pack. But beware of them early in the season with the change of both coordinators. The Cardinals are terrible and actively tanking. Don’t expect to see Kyler Murray until real late this year.
As always…
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Eagles are currently my highest rated team and they are 9 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Eagles played the Chargers, I believe they should be 7 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Philadelphia is playing the Chargers in Los Angeles, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Chargers 1-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be an 2 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 0.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be an 4.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
