NFL Week 9 Power Rankings
If you thought there were a lot of shocking results in Week 8 of the NFL, you haven’t been paying attention. Some of the so-called upsets were obvious from a mile away.
Let’s start with the Raiders. They got shut out and completely dominated by the Saints. While this might have been a surprise to some, it shouldn’t have been. Taking a team like the Raiders, who tend to do badly in different time zones, as a road favorite in New Orleans is absurdly square. Be mindful of such traps the books like to get the public with.
Another one that seemed to trip people up was the Niners playing at the Rams as road divisional favorites. The “correct” play in this one is to take the Rams as home dogs. However, you have to remember that Kyle Shanahan OWNS Sean McVay. It is almost absolute domination every time they face each other. And outside of the Niners CB dropping a wide open interception in last year’s playoff game, the Rams would be about 6-0 in their last 6 meetings.
Staying on the Rams…this team ain’t good. Their offensive line is, for lack of a better word, offensive. They can’t run the ball. And they only have one go to play on offense: find Cooper Kupp in the flat. This is all very unsustainable. I get they are defending champs, however, until they show something, they are basically unbettable at the moment.
The Falcons / Panthers game was really insane. I was on the Panthers and probably shouldn’t have covered but thanks to PJ Walker’s bomb, I did, miraculously. All that aside, it really might be time to fade this Panthers team. They are working without their best player, who was traded and are coming off of a demoralizing loss. I know they’ve been competitive but it might be time to get off the train with them.
I advocated for picking the Houston Texans in these very pages right here. In fact, my handicap was spot on. Malik Willis played and couldn’t throw the ball. He doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback. All the Texans had to do was just stop Derrick Henry. They knew he was getting the ball. They couldn’t do anything about it. Disgraceful. The Texans had 51 yards of offense TOTAL outside of the last garbage time drive (to salvage the teaser!). You know how in Shark Tank, the sharks always say, “and for that reason, I’m out!”. Same. This is the worst team in football and it’s not even close.
Who I previously thought was the worst team in football, the Bears, look like they have some life. At least their offense looks fun. They are finally letting Justin Fields run around and do things. Good. They even went out and got him Chase Claypool to throw to. While all this is exciting, please don’t lose sight of the fact that they traded both their two best defensive players and have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
The Dolphins are really going all in this year. Their signing of Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson really show a commitment. As for their game against the Lions on Sunday, they get no real upgrade from me. Congrats on coming back. Congrats on winning. Congrats on the big stat line Tua. But it’s the Lions and they were down three scores at one point. I think this game says more about the Lions than it does the Dolphins.
As for the Lions, they did what I thought they would in the first half. They played spirited ball and looked like they wanted to win. However, their defense is just atrocious. Hard to bet any team in the NFL that has a defense this bad. Now, with the trade of Hockenson, it looks like they’re giving up on the season. Dan Campbell is on notice and might not make it past this season once they pick their new QB.
Washington looks reinvigorated with Taylor Heinecke at the helm. I fully expect for Carson Wentz to not get his job back once he’s healthy. I still think this is an average to below average team but with Chase Young coming back, they aren’t the dregs of the league. They are bettable in good situations.
The Eagles are really a powerhouse. I don’t see any team except for the 49ers challenging them in the NFC this year. I will gladly look for and bet an Eagles / Niners NFC championship game, as long as I’m getting more than 5-1.
The Jets lost again and Zach Wilson looks terrible. It’s almost in the Jets interest to have a bad season and pick his successor next year. He was making mistakes that are unforgiveable in the pros. So yea, the Pats won the game but in reality the Jets lost it.
I am making a “bold” statement here. The Dallas Cowboys are not as good as their record. They are beating up against bad teams and taking advantage of their really good defense. I do not think they can hang against the best teams in the league. In fact, I would take their opponent if I’m laying 3 or less against the good teams in the league. This includes the Niners.
The Giants dream run finally came to an end. It was too much to ask them to go up to Seattle after winning on the road the prior 2 weeks. I still think this is a solid team with good coaching and subpar talent. They will only be in games against teams that are coached worse or have less talent. Store that away for future purposes.
The Tampa Bay Bucs might be broken. I’m fairly sure that Tom Brady doesn’t care about football as much as he says he does. He just got divorced! Listen, I think this is their lowest point of the season. Which means there’s upside to buying them low.
The Ravens are a good team with too many injuries. They’ve definitely improved in the trade window but it might not be enough to overcome the likes of the Bills and the Chiefs. Unfortunately, it looks like they are headed for yet another playoff disappointment.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 9 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Browns, I believe they should be 9 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Browns in Cleveland, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 7 point favorite (accounting for a Browns 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 9 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be an 7.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
