Pittsburgh Pirates (J. Musgrove -R) +120 over Chicago White Sox (D. Cease -R)

9/8/20 Best Bet: Today I am seeing some value on the lowly Pirates. Some of the best bets you can make are the ugliest. The White Sox have been on fire lately and have rocketed to the top of the division, so why fade them? Value. I have Musgrove as the better pitcher here and the Pirates are home. Yet, they are getting a plus number. To start, Dylan Cease seems to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Cease has a 3.29 ERA but a 5.85 xFIP. In other words, he’s gotten lucky. Meanwhile, Musgrove has opposite numbers (a 6.62 ERA but a 4.47 xFIP). Yes, the Pirates hit like shit, but that difference shouldn’t be enough to have the home team as the underdog here. Gimmie the Bucs!