Chicago Bears (o7.5 -130/u7.5 +107) 2020 Preview
“Mitch Trubisky is a bust!” “This defense just isn’t the same without Vic Fangio.” “The skill position players are just not enough to make this team great.” These are just a few choice quotes and thoughts coming out of Chicago this offseason. The narrative is that the Bears had one good season in 2018 and then Trubisky fell apart, Fangio left, the defense regressed and there’s just not enough talent to get this team deep in the playoffs. The Bears are ready to not only ready to prove this narrative wrong in 2020; this team is poised to make a run.
So hear me out here: I think the Chicago Bears had a let down year in 2019. It was almost certain to happen. The team came out of nowhere in 2018, lead by their ferocious defense with Khalil Mack, Eddie Goldman and Kyle Fuller. Trubisky looked competent that year, giving Bears fans some solace that they missed out on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. And then in 2019 it came crashing down. Mitch looked lost and “couldn’t see the field” by sometimes overthrowing receivers by over 5 yards. The defense didn’t have Vic Fangio any more, with Chuck Pagano stepping in. The running back, David Montgomery, who was supposed to be the answer at the position, was very much a rookie that looks middling. Even the special teams never recovered from the infamous “double doink” kick that lost the playoff game. I think the demise of this team has been greatly exaggerated and now is the time to buy in on them while their stock is low.
Nick Foles has been brought in to challenge Trubisky for the QB job. While Trubisky has been named the starter for Game 1, there is no assurance he will remain as such this year. Mitch had to get the starting job, as the GM picked him over some high powered QBs and wants to justify the pick. The reality here is that Matt Nagy is still the head coach and is drawing up the plays. I believe either QB can be successful and it’s just that Mitch will have the first shot. This Chicago offense has remained mostly consistent with Montgomery, Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller back in the fold. Ted Ginn will now be the stretch receiver and Jimmy Graham was paid to be the teacher for newly drafted Cole Kmet. The Jimmy Graham contract sure seems laughable but I think Nagy is pulling out the whole playbook this year. There’s been rumors of him being fired (which I think are crazy) and he will try to save his job. That will probably entail interesting play calling such as multiple TEs, Cordarrelle Patterson lining up at RB and Tarik Cohen passing. I, for one, am not sure that the Bears are better served with Foles as the QB because they would lose some of Mitch’s scrambling ability. Also, I believe Mitch will be running this year. For his job, for his NFL future and most importantly, for another decent payday. This offense should improve from last year’s overall 25th DVOA. If for nothing else, I expect the consistency to help Chicago in a COVID year with not much practice.
Another area the Bears should have an advantage with is on defense. While Eddie Goldman has opted out this year, Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack will pick up the slack and help this defense remain in the top 3rd. In fact, I believe the defense improves under year 2 of the Chuck Pagano scheme. Add in the fact that this division isn’t very good and now we are onto something. The Bears need to go .500 to cash this season win total and that is not asking a lot. The Packers are fugazi, the Vikings lost most of their best defensive players and the Lions are no world beaters. The Bears having a top flight defense and a serviceable offense being coached by a genius offensive mind is value at just 7.5 wins.
I am all in on the Bears this year. I have already bet the season win total over 7.5 wins. I love, love, love the Bears to win the NFC North at +380, given the level of competition they have. I like the value (and bet) them to make the playoffs at +154. Shit, I even sprinkled on the Bears to win the NFC at +2000. So why this irrational Bears love? Well, I feel that the Bears had a let down season, similar to a let down game. I think this offense improves regardless whether Trubisky plays his heart out or Nick Foles is just more competent. Allen Robinson will prove to be one of the league’s best receivers with Anthony Miller taking a big step forward. This defense is just a year removed from being the best in the league and will regress back towards that direction. Nagy will emerge as one of the NFL’s best coaches this season. Most of all, I think the Bears’ competition will underwhelm. Da Bears to surprise! 2020, what a year.
Season Total Plays: Over 7.5 wins (-130). To Win NFC North (+380). Bears to Make Playoffs (+154). Sprinkle a little on Bears to Win NFC (+2000).