Week 5 NFL Power Rankings
Week 4 was tough. Lines have definitely gotten sharper. But, outcomes don’t always move in a straight line.
For instance. Yes, the Cardinals looked like they beat up the Panthers (and they did) but they didn’t play all that well. Baker Mayfield was a disaster of epic proportions, yet the game was 10-3 Panthers headed into the 2nd half. I will say it again. I do not think the Cardinals are a good team.
The Jets somehow miraculously won a game in Pittsburgh – just their second win there in history. However, it took 3 interceptions from newly inputted Steelers starter, Kenny Pickett, to achieve the win. Zach Wilson did look better than I expected, however, I’m not ready to upgrade the Jets by a ton for that victory.
The Dolphins got beat up on Thursday night, both physically and in the scoreboard. Wishing Tua a speedy recovery! The quick takeaway is up until late in the game, the Dolphins kept it competitive, even with a massive energy discrepancy. The Dolphins D might be forreal. Also, Joe Burrow’s line seems to be protecting him better.
Yea, the Vikings won and covered the London game if you took it earlier in the week. I assure you, if you woke up and watched that game, you know that the Vikings were very lucky to leave there with a victory. One thing I was right on from the preseason – this Vikings defense can’t stop anyone. Andy Dalton was moving the ball at will. Sidenote: Chris Olave is going to be a problem.
The Chargers got out to a big lead and eventually covered but their game brings me to another point I wanted to touch on this week. Why do coaches just not take the points? If the Texans just take the field goal towards the end of the first half, they are down 10 heading into the half. Not something to wish for but decent for a home underdog. Instead, they go for it on 4th down, do not convert, the Chargers get the ball back and end up kicking a FG. A 6 point swing. This wasn’t a big deal until later in the game when the Texans made the game much closer and ultimately would have covered the +5.5 (they lost by 10), had they just elected to kick that FG at the end of the first half. And if you are thinking, teams don’t care to cover, they want to win. Ok. Houston was down 3 at one point in the 4th quarter. They would have been leading by 3 instead.
Another example. Up 8 points in the 4th quarter, the Eagles eschew a FG to go for it on 4th down. If they hit the FG, it’s a two score game and it’s over. Instead their defense still had to hold in a game they pretty much controlled most of the way. I don’t get what some of these coaches are thinking.
Speaking of the Eagles – they are definitely a top 3 team right now. Every level is good. With that said, I think the Jaguars defense is real and it will be hard to run the ball against them.
Another McVay / Shanahan meeting and another win by Shanahan. This rivalry is not much of a rivalry. The Niners and Shanahan own the Rams. LA also has some issues on the offensive line that they need to figure out. Plus, if they can’t show a semblance of a running game, they will be one dimensional and get owned.
Just a note: Mike Vrabel is a good coach. Even if he’s outmanned and outgunned, he finds a way. As for Frank Reich: I don’t know what the hell he’s doing half the time. Another bonehead, horrible decision by him. He tries to kick a FG at the end of that game when he needed a TD. Didn’t matter, they missed it anyway. They probably lose tonight and there’s a large possibility it’s his last game as Indy’s head coach.
The Bucs got crushed, sure. But what I saw was a really bad error to start of the game, that lead to an immediate touchdown for KC and they trailed the entire game. They basically only ran the ball 6 times. This is not who they are. Also, I have not given up on their defense. They are still elite. Mahomes makes many teams look bad.
While the Bucs still look off, I can’t downgrade them too much. They were missing basically their entire passing corps this weekend. The Packers were basically able to sell out and stop Fournette. And somehow, the Bucs were right there at the end with a real chance to tie. They are the best defense in the league. That counts for something.
The Raiders won a game. Super. The Broncos looked terrible again but this time, lost. They also lost their RB for the year and Randy Gregory for at least a week. Russ is either washed or Nahaniel Hackett doesn’t make it past this year.
The Giants won a game where they completed 7 forward passes. Saquon Barkley is an elite talent. Short of the G-Men getting back Kadarious Toney and WanDale Robinson, the Giants look lifeless. The Bears are a horrible football team. They are basically not good at any level of the game. Make sure to fade the Bears.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 7 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Browns, I believe they should be 7 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Browns in Cleveland, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 5 point favorite (accounting for a Browns 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 3.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 7.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
