Best Bet: Patriots / Packers u40 (-110)

The Pats are 29th overall DVOA against the run. The Packers want to run the ball and their two best skill weapons, outside of Aaron Rodgers, are AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. The Packers are 32nd overall DVOA against the run. They gave up over 120 yards to David Montgomery, even when Justin Fields threw the ball just 11 times in that game against the Bears. Rhamondre Stevenson is coming on and the Pats will have to lean on the run with Mac Jones out of the lineup this week. Bill Belichick, an already defensive coach, will want to win a rock fight, especially coming off a loss. I think this is a slow, methodical game. Rodgers is still learning to trust his young receivers, like Romeo Doubs. I think this goes under the 40 total.