NFL Power Rankings and Week 3 Recap - 9/30/20
NFL Power Rankings
Week 3 RECAP
Week 3, where there’s finally enough data to make real conclusions about certain teams. This is the time when you begin to see teams’ colors shining through. I have flipped the top 2 teams again after they played each other and KC won handily. This is even the point of the season when you can begin writing some teams off. And yes, I have to change my assumptions about some teams too (I’m looking at you Green Bay). All the power ranking movements at the bottom…But first, thoughts on Week 3.
This is the week that the underdogs bit back. Last week, other than the Saints, all the favored teams won outright (but didn’t all necessarily cover). You almost knew that was not going to repeat again this past Sunday. Up first, the Bears went into Atlanta and looked left for dead down by 16. Then, next thing you know, Matt Nagy pulls a very ballsy move to bench Trubisky and put in Nick Foles. Foles brings the Bears back and now this is his team. I still love the Bears and while they haven’t exactly beat a murderer’s row of opponents, this is a solid football team. As for the Falcons, I was higher than most coming into the season, but their defense is putrid. Whatever changes Raheem Morris implemented in the second half of last year are either not working or have been exposed. As they haven’t fired Matt Quinn yet, as of this writing, I’m treating them as a buy low candidate. They have an easy schedule for the next few weeks and could turn it around but keep betting the over in their games.
The TB (Tom Brady) Bucs won again, this time manhandling a broken down Broncos team. The defense is carrying the Bucs this season. I still believe Brady doesn’t look like his old self and it’s not for lack of weapons. I’m still in fade mode for the Bucs. Speaking of players looking old, Drew Brees can’t seem to throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field. This is not good for the Saints prospects. And for those of you saying, well, he doesn’t have Michael Thomas! Yea, Thomas is the definition of a possession receiver, a damn good one, but not someone that’s gonna burn you 30 yards down the field. Hot take: we are going to see Jameis at some point this season. This roster is too good to have this bad quarterback play. To round out the NFC South, the Panthers looked competent going into LA and taking down the Chargers but I’m not getting too excited. They took down a rookie QB in his second game after they had some film on him. The Panthers defense is still very bad and will be exploited. While the Chargers looked bad this Sunday, they still almost won the game on a missed lateral. The Chargers defense, even minus Melvin Ingram, has enough talent to keep them in games.
The Broncos are a team I was high on coming into the year. Unfortunately, key injuries at QB, WR and LB have decimated this team. Now, Denver is preparing to start Brett Rypien this week at QB. Yea, this is a team I will only consider playing on at home and in a good spot. The Raiders went into New England off of a big win and…dropped an egg. I do not expect much from the Raiders, especially, their defense but it looks like Gruden and Carr are getting along. I expect that marriage to end in divorce this year. It’s still early. Finally, the Chiefs won the biggest regular season game of the year by going into Baltimore and manhandling the Ravens. After the game, Lamar Jackson even said that the Chiefs are their kryptonite. KC wins win big win they are clicking, they win by overcoming adversity and they even have been coming up defensively. This is the best team in the NFL.
The polar opposite of the Chiefs are the Jets, who just got smoked in Indianapolis. The Jets have injuries and little talent where they are not injured. Adam Gase’s job will be decided this Thursday night. If he loses at home to the Broncos with a 3rd string QB, he will most certainly be fired. After the Thursday game gives the team enough time to install Gregg Williams as the interim coach. At that point, I will actually be on the Jets. However, not until Gase is gone. Speaking of bad NY teams, how about those Giants? What the fuck was that? The Giants are at home against a 49ers team that is seriously banged up and mentally blocked from doing well at MetLife stadium. This is a game all the sharps were on taking the Giants. And they get dismantled. It was so bad that the Giants did not run a single play in the Red Zone. I’m not joking and that wasn’t hyperbole. Not one single play in the Red Zone. Joe Judge is feeling the effects of limited practice thanks to COVID. As we are talking about train wrecks, how about the Eagles?! They tie the lowly Cincinnati Bengals in a game they had to have. Yes, all the receivers are hurt but Wentz looks terrible. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an MVP candidate from just a few years ago fall off as hard as he has. I’m still considering Philly a buy low but my patience is worn with them and if they don’t come to play this weekend, they are going to be a fade. As for the team that is expected to win the NFC East, the Cowboys fought valiantly in Seattle but Russ is cooking right now. The Cowboys defense will put them at a disadvantage in almost all the games they play outsider their division (they’ll be fine against the Giants, Eagles and Washington).
Up in the Northwest, Russ is making his MVP case loud and clear. And I have to say, this is a great coaching job by Pete Carroll. You win with what you have not by trying to stick a square peg in a round hole. And what Carroll has is the best player in the NFL, who he’s finally allowing to ball out. I love Russ but I am not being fooled here, they are winning games despite this defense. Be warned. The Seahawks NFC West-mates the 49ers sure looked good with their 2nd and 3rd stringers didn’t they? Well, they aren’t going to be playing the Giants and Jets every week. The Niners defense is so banged up that once they begin facing hungry and desperate competition this week, they won’t be so dominant. As for the Cardinals, they finally have come back down to Earth. This is a young team and will be prone to let down games, such as the game against the Lions this past weekend. The Rams on the other hand, look way better than I expected. Even in a rough loss to the Bills, LA managed to make a furious come back. I expect them to destroy the Giants in LA this upcoming weekend.
Let us remember one thing: bet on Bill Belichick coming off a loss. The Pats looked strong against the Raiders but Las Vegas hung tight until midway through the 3rd quarter. This Pats team is still not the one of old. Do not be fooled, the Pats are all run game and clock management. Look to bet unders on this team. On the flipside, the Bills look fun and exciting. Josh Allen feels like he could make any play at any time and the overall roster is extremely solid. Buffalo is one preseason like that I will be sticking with for the foreseeable future. As for the Miami Dolphins, is there any line that they are totally out of? 3 weeks in and they have been in every game pushing for or outright covering the game. As long as Fitzpatrick is the quarterback, this is a bet on team.
As for a bet-off team, I am fading the Steelers. Yes, they are 3-0, yes, they’ve covered 2 out of 3 but they don’t look right to me. I’m not thrilled to be betting this team. Same could be said for the Vikings. They barely covered a game at home, where they were in control of for about 3.5 quarters. Minnesota has not shown me anything good this year. Not defensively and barely anything offensively. I can’t wait to bet against the Vikings. (Note: I might actually have to wait to bet against them due to COVID concerns this upcoming weekend).
OK, I have to make an admission, I was wrong on the Packers. I expected them to thoroughly regress and Rodgers to start showing signs of aging. None of this happened. Rodgers looks fantastic and they are going into New Orleans and winning outright as 3.5 point dogs. Maybe I misjudged Matt LaFleur. I will probably just pass than bet against them right now.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 9.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the Lions, I believe they should be 9.5 point favorites. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing Detroit in Detroit, according to my Power Rankings, Baltimore should be about a 6.5 point favorite (accounting for a Detroit 3 point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be an 8.5 point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons on a neutral field. If the game was in Atlanta, the Bills should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be an 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
