New England Patriots +6 (-115)

The Dallas Cowboys are the better team in this matchup but they come in banged up. First, they are hurt on the offensive line. This will be a problem against a Bill Belichik defense. As is always the case when playing the Pats, Belichik will take away your best weapon. Given that the Pats have a top 5 pass defense, I expect Belichik to take away Tony Pollard and force Dak Prescott to beat them through the air. On the flip side, I think we get a fairly conservative play calling game from the Patriots offense. No reason to have Mac Jones throw the ball all over the yard. The Pats just need to keep this game close and force the Dak turnover(s). In a chess match I will take Bill Belichik over Mike McCarthy any day.