Best Bet: Cowboys +7 (-110)

I can get grosser. I’ll be taking the Cowboys +7 at home today against the Bengals. I was all over this line when it opened at 8 and 7.5. And I still like it with the full touchdown. In situations where a team’s starting QB is out, I do a very simple sanity check. What would this line be if Dak was playing? I estimate it would have been around Dallas -1. So, what is this line saying? That Dak is worth 8 points to the spread? No chance. I got Mahomes as about 7 points to the line and Dak is no Mahomes. We can talk about how unlucky the Bengals got last week but ultimately, they lost outright to a weaker team. Now, the public is confident that Burrow and Co. can go into Dallas against a desperate team, who will rally around Cooper Rush and win buy a full TD? The Dallas defense will running all over the field and Micah Parsons can effect this game as much as TJ Watt did last week. I think this is a massive overreaction. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Dallas wins this game.