NFL Week 6 Power Rankings
Again with the insane coaching decisions! I realty cannot believe these coaches get paid to do these ridiculous things. Beyond that, Week 5 was interesting as plenty of favorites covered. I’m positive the books got crushed. That means be careful this week. Favorites do not just continue winning in the NFL. It has never worked this way and this year isn’t the year that trend will break.
On to the coaching…I’ll start with the “battle of wits” between Kevin Stefanski and Brandon Staley. I normally appreciate and defend Stefanski but, as stated here last week – I’m all the way out on Staley. Dude is just a clown. With a bit over 1:00 left in the game and up by 2 points on his side of the field, call it the 45 yard line, the Chargers have a 4th and 1. Given the nature of the Browns offense (very run heavy), the move to make here is to punt it and back the Browns into their own endzone. Let’s say Mr. Staley is feeling spicy and decides to go for it on 4th down, OK, cool, you have a 6’5” QB who’s built like a linebacker, so you just sneak it. Nope! Fade pattern to Mike Williams that is way off. Now the Browns have the ball in Chargers territory and all they need is about 10 yards in 1:00 to set up for a close game winning field goal. Not to be outdone by Staley, Stefanski decides to RUN THE BALL on the first play, which inexplicably drains almost 30 seconds off the clock, when the Browns don’t have a timeout. Of course they eventually try and MISS the field goal and lose the game.
I’m not going to even bother with Josh McDaniels decision to go for two with 4 minutes left in the game with Patrick freakin’ Mahomes on the other side of the field. Just wild stuff.
One topic that is impossible to handicap but will affect our bets moving forward is the new world of concussions and protecting the QB. If a player is even thought to have a concussion now, they are out of the game with basically no chance to return. Call it the Tua Standard. And the NFL is trying to compensate so much for the Tua debacle, that defensive players can’t even tackle the QB anymore – see Mahomes and Brady this weekend. Not sure how we can overcome this.
Are the Jets for real? I honestly can’t tell. We can say that they were dramatically aided by Teddy Bridgewater going out on the first or second play of the game. However, they still scored 40 points! In an NFL game. So, while the Dolphins defense has been lowkey bad all year and maybe they were exposed, it’s hard to believe the Jets are some juggernaut.
I played Pittsburgh this past weekend. I just thought the +14 was too juicy. Well, I ran into a buzzsaw. The Bills are really good. But the Steelers might be really bad. Without JJ Watt, they just don’t have an untouchable defense. And with a rookie QB and a terrible offensive line, they are just not going to be in games like they used to be. Maybe Kenny Pickett turns out to be really good and my opinion changes. But for now, it’s either fade them or pass.
The Vikings let the Bears – my worst team in the NFL – back into last week’s game and were in danger of letting them tie the game or losing. I don’t know what to even say about this Minnesota team. Nothing changes with them. They play every game close. They let every team back in. Honestly, I think I can only play them as dogs. I cannot in good conscience lay points with this team.
As a long time Giants fan, I will say this: the win against the Packers says more about the Packers than it does the Giants. Yes, I am super excited to see what Daniel Jones can do with actual, real life, NFL receivers. But, at this point, you cannot feel good about the Packers. Aaron Rodgers just looks totally out of sync with his receivers. Someone really needs to explain to me why they refuse to get AJ Dillon more involved in the game. This defense that was supposed to be “good” is mediocre at best. I suspect the Packers will not be going over their season win total. I’m actually really looking hard at playing the Jets plus the points this weekend.
The Los Angeles Rams are not a serious contender this season. Let go of the title they won. Just let it go. This team can’t protect Matt Stafford, which is leading him to making quick, bad throws that lead to turnovers. Allen Robinson is not working out because he goes deep and Stafford just doesn't have the time to find him. Also, you can’t fool any defenses when you objectively cannot run the ball. I’m not rushing to lay double digits with them this weekend – even if it’s against PJ Walker.
The reason PJ Walker is starting this weekend’s game for Carolina is the same reason Matt Rhule is no longer the head coach: Baker Mayfield. Baker is a turnover machine. I took -150 for him to throw a pick this weekend. It cashed. I would take it this weekend too but he’s hurt. Walker is not better than Mayfield, so you will see Baker again. Just keep that tucked away – always play him to throw a pick. He can’t see over the line.
I can’t lie, the 49ers look like the best team in the NFC West. Huge concern is that they keep getting injured. Be careful on just blindly betting this team to keep steamrolling lesser teams. Those lesser teams are much healthier.
The Bucs basically gave away an easy cover this past weekend. They looked like the better, more dominant team. At some point in the second half, they just stopped playing defense and allowed Atlanta back in. As I’m sure you’ve heard, Atlanta is now 5-0 against the spread. I do not think this is a good team but they’ve played for Arthur Smith. They are due for a bad showing soon. Be ready.
At this point Washington needs to stop this insanity and clean house. Carson Wentz isn’t the answer. Ron Rivera certainly isn’t the answer. Because, if Matt Rhule got fired, there’s no reason that Ron shouldn’t. The vaunted defense he was supposed to have has been horrible for the last two years. He’s the next to go.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 7.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Browns, I believe they should be 7.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Browns in Cleveland, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 5.5 point favorite (accounting for a Browns 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 7 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be a 9.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
