Quick Week 3 RECAP & Thoughts

Another good week in the books. I personally went 11-5 ATS on my picks. However, I keep emphasizing the wrong games. I am on the wrong side of variance and it will swing back in my favor.

Not sure what the hell we witnessed from Matt Nagy and Justin Fields in Cleveland this past weekend. Why would they put Fields out there with no plan? The offense he was running looked like it was meant for Nick Foles. WTF. 1 total net yard of offense on the day. The Browns did just enough to clobber them but this loss was on the Bears. I think Chicago has value this weekend against a public dog in the Lions but it would be tough to be on Chicago. Just find the prop for Matt Nagy first coach fired. That’s the play.   

The NY Football Giants are toast. Another lost season. If you couldn’t beat the hapless Falcons at home with Matt Ryan looking like he’s 58, you ain’t winning many games. The first sacrifice will be Jason Garrett. Expect that to come down within the next 5 weeks. This offense is rudderless. When Sterling Shepherd went out, they were completely unable to move the ball effectively. The Giants need a much larger reckoning but they will be difficult to bet on now that their best defensive player, Blake Martinez, is out. The Falcons got a win. Cool, do it again.

While everyone was focused on the Bucs/Rams, I really don’t feel that game told me too much. I think that the Rams were getting points at home and were able to pressure the Bucs in their softest area (the secondary). Tom Brady might have also been caught looking forward to the Pats this week. The Rams did what they had to do. Let’s not go anointing them the NFL champs yet.

The Jags looked like they could actually cover a game this week. And then, just collapsed. This team is atrocious. It will be very hard to take them this Thursday on the road in a short week. Not with Urban Meyer preparing them. The Cardinals are winning the games, so you can’t ding them too much but I am not loving that their defense has yet to play a serious contender. I also despise Kliff Kingsbury. We all saw it, the kick got returned. A 68-yd FG. What a douche.  

Cincy beat the Steelers outright. The Bengals offensive line got off last week with the Steelers defensive injuries. They will not get so lucky every week. The Bengals defense has been punching above their weight this year. As for Pitt, Big Ben is donezo. Wrap city. What a monumental blunder to resign him, even for deferred money. This dude targeted Najee Harris 19 times. Najee Harris plays running back. 19 times to the RB, in a league with an average depth of target is 9, Ben’s is much below that. I am still very bullish on my Season Wins under bet on the Steelers. Maybe they go to Mason Rudolph.

Vikings are tough at home. Remember that. They are a hard team to fade at home. That will be put to the test this weekend when the Browns come to town. Minnesota could have been 3-0 this year with a few different bounces. Kirk Cousins is playing out of his mind. Seattle has lost two games in a row. Now they are slated to face the Niners. How many times has Russell Wilson ever lost three consecutive games in his career? It can’t be more than once, if that. This Seattle defense worries me. They are bottom third of the league and don’t seem to be getting better.

I was on the Cowboys on Monday night. Faded the sharp side and was well rewarded. The Cowboys can light it up and if you are weak in the secondary, Dallas will expose you. They get a real test this weekend with the number 1 defensive team (DVOA) comes into Arlington. Something’s got to give. That Dallas defense is still suspect. This is a tough team to judge. For now, they are the best team in the NFC East. The Eagles learned quickly that if you make mistakes you can be exposed. This offense looks better but Jalen Hurts is still inaccurate. Also, what the hell is Nick Sirianni doing? He ran Miles Sanders just twice the entire game against the Cowboys. Now Philly is staring at a Kansas City team that upset and seeking a win. Things could get ugly Sunday.

Baltimore barely pulled out a win against Detroit on Sunday. Cool kick, Justin Tucker. It should have never come to that kick. “Hollywood” Brown was dropping balls like Crosby dropping babies. I’m still not sold on Lamar Jackson as Top 5 QB in the league, MVP or not. They are a short dog headed into Denver on Sunday. I have upgraded the Lions in my rankings off of a loss. That’s rare but deserved. Say what you will, this team hangs around. They seem to really want to win and their game plan is suited to their ability with the short passing game to the RBs. They are live dogs against the Bears this weekend. Just remember before you bet on the Lions: this defense is POOR.

Houston is still starting Davis Mills. They are coming into a game against Buffalo as the largest dogs of the year so far: 16.5 points. This game will test the resolve of a handicapper. A rookie QB’s first game on the road in a VERY tough place to play in Buffalo. The Bills all of a sudden look rejuvenated. However, is this laying too much? Carolina has the league’s best defense. I think this is partially part of their schedule, which has been fairly easy so far. They get their first real test in Dallas over the weekend. Matt Rhule with extra time vs. Mike McCarthy with less time? Bet it now.

Sean Payton took it to hear that he was blown out. The Saints marched right into Foxborough and beat up on the Pats. It’s very hard to run the ball against the Saints and with the Pats looking one-dimensional, they got trounced. We all love Bill Belichick and he might have been looking ahead to his matchup with Tampa this weekend but COME ON. If they couldn’t run the ball against the Saints (3rd overall Rush DVOA), how are they going to fair against Tampa who’s almost equally as strong?

The Jets are making a case for being the worst team in the NFL. Yea, I get it, this was a tough spot playing early in the year in Denver (altitude). But the Jets didn’t show up. Denver has a top 5 defense and it was a rookie QB on the road but the team as a whole has showed nothing. After being shut out, they are now +7.5 at home to the Titans. I will have to be on the Jets and what a lonely place it will be. Denver keeps losing players. This is going to catch up to them eventually. For now, they are at home to a Baltimore team that is considered one of the top contenders in the league. This game will tell us a whole bunch about both teams.

I hate Jon Gruden. With the cover (and more importantly for him, the win) firmly secured in OT last week, he’s running the ball. What the fuck is he doing? Just kick the field goal. Dude makes no sense. Kinda like paying Kenyan Drake real money and playing Peyton Barber (a WFT reject) over him. No rhyme or reason for anything. I think the Raiders are getting too much love. They are slightly better than average. As for Miami, there is no drop off from Tua to Brissett. In fact, I feel Jacoby has more confidence and prefer him to lead the team. I think they have value over the Colts this weekend.

As for the Colts. Wow. This team sucks. I’m not really sure what they are good at. And now I’m getting suspect decision making from Frank Reich. This is not headed in a good direction. Tennessee was able to beat the Colts and take a hold of this division but at what cost? AJ Brown is hurt. Julio looks like he’s hurt. This defense is still pure trash. How on earth are they laying over a full TD on the road?  

San Francisco lost a very winnable game that will matter in the standings later in the year. More importantly, they were never in a position to cover. I was all over them this weekend. I just figured that Kyle Shanahan would out scheme the bad Green Bay run defense. If there was ever a game to really experiment with Trey Lance, it was against the Packers. He was in for one play. Also, the SF secondary is a major liability. You know who knows this? Russell Wilson. I’m not sure what to make of Green Bay. I have them rated highly but they seem like a tinderbox. They play a reeling Steelers team at home and laying a big number. If they are unable to cover this number, I will have to fade them.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Seahawks, I believe they should be 6 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Seahawks in Seattle, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4.5 point favorite (accounting for a Seahawks 2.5-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Chiefs should be a 6 point favorite over the Washington Football Team on a neutral field. If the game was in Washington, the Chiefs should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in KC, the Chiefs should be an 8 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.