10/10/21 Best Bet: Houston Texans +8 (-110)

I know this is ugly. After what we witnessed last week with the Texans, how on Earth can I consider taking them this week? Here’s how: the line is wrong. It just is. Bill Belichik destroys rookie QBs, this is just a fact. And Davis Mills looks downright horrible. But the reality is, I have the Pats power ranked as 6.5 points better than the Texans on a neutral. The game is in Houston. Let’s give Houston just a 1 point homefield advantage in this new “home field doesn’t matter” new world. So this game should be lined at 5.5. I’m getting 8. Add in the absolute demolition of the Texans last week and that this is a team of veterans with pride. Add in the Pats will be missing 4 out of 5 starting offensive linemen. Add in Mac Jones will be a rookie on the road (doesn’t matter that it’s the Texans). Finally, add in that I’m getting 8 points in a game with a 39.5 point total. I’m on the Texans.