Buffalo Bills +3 (EV) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

1/24/21 Best Bet: No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Sorry, I had to. Look, I think that Kansas City could put up 40+ points in this game and run away with it. However, with Mahomes having a hurt toe, I expect a lot of in the pocket passing and a healthy dose of CEH and Darrel Williams on the ground. Like last time out, I believe Buffalo allows KC to get a bunch of 5 and 7 yard chunks on the ground and not give up a bunch over the top. This strategy will have me leaning the under in this game. I also think the Bills run the ball considerably more than last week, as that’s the Chiefs biggest weakness on defense. Josh Allen should be able to evade the Chiefs pass rush and get gains in the offense. In fact, Allen is the best QB vs. pressure this season. The Chiefs defensive coordinator is Steve Spagnolo, who LOVES to pressue (trust me, ask any Giants fan). I think Buffalo is a live dog but I like them getting the FG here at even money and LOVE them if this line gets to 3.5.