NFL Power Rankings & Week 16 Recap
Quick Week 16 RECAP & Thoughts
More COVID, More gambling problems. It’s so hard to bet early in the week. So hard. How can you lock anything in when a team’s QB can just be ruled out at any given moment. Wild times.
That said, try to wait until Friday or Saturday to place your bets. We witnessed this last week with the Colts, who lost a bunch of key guys, even though they managed to still one.
The Colts are a good team and can really go far into the playoffs. They have a winning formula. A strong run game and a good D. I think Frank Reich is a top 10 coach to boot. This team might operate like that Eagles team that won the title the year Wentz went down. Sprinkle their SB futures.
Tampa lost a bunch of guys and was all about business. I expect this to be the thing going forward. Tom Brady don’t fuck around, son.
Some teams seem like they have quit for the year. Those teams are un-betable. Giants, Carolina, Jacksonville and maybe even Seattle, I’m looking at you. These teams that have NOTHING to play for are scary to be on and frustrating to be fading.
The most confounding team for me this year has been Atlanta. What the fuck are they doing? Sometimes they decide to play offense and other times they just sleepwalk. In theory, they are a playoff contender but they are confusing to bet on or off.
There’s a real argument to be made that with the Glennon / Fromm combo, the Giants are the worst team in football. I don’t have them power ranked as such, because they have talent on their roster. But it seems that talent cannot be unlocked with these QBs.
It’s a damn shame Jameis got hurt earlier this year. I would’ve liked to see how frisky the Saints could have been in the playoffs.
The reason laying double digits in the NFL is a fool’s errand is the Chargers / Texans game. It made no sense, but it happened. That’s the NFL for you. Side note, Brandon Staley cannot be a top coach if he can’t get this defense sorted out. That’s his “specialty”. Had this defense been anything close to what he did with the Rams last year, the Chargers could be gearing up for a deep postseason run.
I’m still not convinced the Bills are that good. Sue me.
However, I am convinced that if the Browns just started Keenum all year, they would’ve already won the AFC North.
Calm down in crowning the Bengals as a top team.
Arizona is suffering in the late stretch again. I think it has more to do with their defense falling apart than Kliff Kingsbury.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Ravens, I believe they should be 6.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Ravens in Baltimore, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a Ravens 4.5-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be a 11.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 10 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be an 13.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
