NFL Power Rankings & Week 8 Recap
Quick Week 8 RECAP & Thoughts
Had a pretty damn good week. If Carson Wentz wasn’t such a disaster of klutz of a human, I’d have had my best week of the year. But, I digress…
No actually, I do not digress. Seriously, how god awful is Wentz? Throwing the ball with his left hand and getting intercepted. Begging to give the game away, he makes a completely unwarranted pass in OT that seals it. Under no circumstance could the Colts give this game away. They were up by 14 and had a big turnover on Tennessee that would’ve smothered them…the Colts defender falls, gets injured, fumbles the ball back to the Titans and the Titans score a TD on the very next play. Well, the Colts aren’t making the playoffs but they have such an easy schedule the next few weeks that I can’t fade them.
Good thing the Titans won because now they are without Derrick Henry for the remainder of the year. Don’t bother picking up AP or Jeremy McNichols in fantasy. Neither are difference makers and will just cost a waiver pickup or FAB budget. Titans defense is still atrocious.
The fact that Miami was down by 9 points with about 5 minutes left and had the ball and were driving into Bills territory and still managed to blow the cover was something to marvel. Possibly, the most impressive thing they’ve accomplished this year. Tua has been playing better and will have the rest of the year to prove he can be an NFL QB. He needs to flash, soon, to prove he can be better than just average.
The Bills are good at beating shitty teams. Noted.
Houston miraculously covered a game they were losing 38-0 in the late 3rd quarter. They stink. Tyrod is finally coming back and I will be on them this upcoming week. They are definitely a team that I will have to back later in the year due to the inflated spreads they will see.
The LA Rams are all in on this year. And as long as they stay healthy, which they have, they are formidable. Remember they are not good at stopping the run.
Remember how I said the Bengals are real? They still might be. Thing is, they got railroaded in an awful spot that I saw coming but couldn’t capitalize on because I hate the Jets. More on that in a minute. Cincy was on its third consecutive road game after what was their best victory in over 15 years. This was a letdown spot. They were up 11 with about 4 minutes to go before the game started to get silly.
Mike White, the next Tom Brady. Not so fast. A 5th round pick out of Western Kentucky just came in and threw for 400 yds passing in his first NFL start. Most of it was underneath to the RB, Michael Carter. Yea, that was cool, now let him do it again, when teams have tape on him and on the road.
Giants managed to hang around the Chiefs. I think this more about the current state of the Chiefs than the Giants. But they played hard. The more I watch this team, the more I really think it’s a damn shame that Gettleman didn’t do anything for the offensive line. Hopefully, he will be gone by the end of the season and they can bring in a real GM.
Chiefs are hard to bet right now. Everyone just assumes there’s some light switch that will go off any day now and revert this team back to what they were. I don’t think that’s coming. Their defense is so bad, that at this point I would just tease any team they are playing up through 3.
Is it a coincidence that Justin Fields had his best game of the year when Matt Nagy wasn’t coaching? I don’t think so. Fields was running all over the place. The Bears still lost and didn’t cover. But they hung around. This defense is too hurt and Nagy is too inept. Hard to back the Bears right now.
Carolina managed to win a game they could have won. Usually, it’s not that easy with the Panthers. This defense is still pretty good. It’s just that the offense is boring and Darnold is not the answer. I expect them to improve when McCaffrey is back but this is a team that is not in the upper echelon yet.
New Orleans pulled off a win, just like I thought they could, just not the way I thought they could. Jameis is out for the year after blowing out his knee. I really think Sean Payton doesn’t get enough credit for being a great coach. I also think they will find a way to win with Taysom Hill. Don’t sleep on the Saints. Defenses travel, especially in the post-season. Do not put too much stock in Michael Thomas, as he’s been out the whole year anyway.
Seattle crushed the Jags. Geno Smith has covered every game he’s started this year and now they are on a bye. Given the crazy NFC playoff picture, the Seahawks are weirdly still in the mix.
Speaking of mixes, the only thing Urban Meyer is in the mix of, is a potential college job. The Jags just aren’t improving, at all. If Trevor Lawrence doesn’t get any better by the end of the year, it is imperative that Jacksonville find a coach that can improve his game.
The Pats are still a good team. Belichick can do a lot with a safe QB, a good defense and a decent running game. I will forever bet him against rookie and 2nd year QBs.
The Chargers might have gotten too good too quick. These last couple of losses might end up being beneficial to their long-term goals. What they need is a nice easy defense to exploit. They may get that in Philly this weekend.
Philly destroyed the Lions because they Lions can’t continue to fight hard every week only to lose. Eventually, bad teams stop fighting. I think we may have lost the Lions for the season. They may not win 3 games this year. As for Philly, it’s going to be hard to win games with a secondary that bad.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 6 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the 49ers, I believe they should be 6 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the 49ers in San Francisco, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 4 point favorite (accounting for a San Francisco 2-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 6.5 point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles on a neutral field. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be a 9.5 point favorite. If the game was in Philadelphia, the Browns should be a 4 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
