AFC South Preview
Tennessee Titans (o9 -160 / u9 +130) -105 to win AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (u9 +110 / u9 -120) +140 to win AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (o6.5 -110 / u6.5 -110) +600 to win AFC South
Houston Texans (o4 -110 / u4 -110) +2800 to win AFC South
In what is perennially the most boring division in the NFL is certainly setting up that way again this year. While there was certainly some intrigue with the Colts bringing in Wentz, that is fading with his sudden injury. The Jags have a new administration and the hotshot rookie at quarterback. The Titans bring in Julio Jones while otherwise staying consistent, minus Arthur Smith. And the Texans are the joke of the league.
I really liked the Colts to take this division earlier in the summer but have since waned on that view. The loss of Carson Wentz due to a foot injury for a potentially long span of time is not ideal. What’s even worse is Quentin Nelson’s injury and what now seems to be an official problem on the left side of their line. If I knew that Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger need to start more than 2 games this season, I would be pounding the under 9 wins. But, as with everything in gambling, it’s tricky. This division still blows. There are some built in wins for the Colts with the Texans and at home to Jacksonville. However, Carson Wentz may play and look as bad as last season. Here’s what I know. When Wentz does eventually play, he will take a step up from last year. He’s reunited with his Coach in Frank Reich and is the guy. There is no pressure to play anyone behind him. The Colts defense is still going to be top 10 this year and should be relied on in home games. There’s just too much uncertainty with Wentz’s status for me to touch the wins or to win the division.
The Titans lost Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith. They did gain Julio Jones. This is not exactly an even trade-off. I have my concerns about the Titans this year. I think their defense is steamy hot trash sauce. They were ranked 29th in DVOA last year and lost Adoree Jackson, their best corner to the Giants. Malcom Butler was swapped for Janoris Jenkins in what is, at best, a fair exchange. I’m not too overly worried about the Titans offense. Tannehill has been a proven winner since he’s arrived and Derrick Henry is a beast. AJ Smith should eat with Julio running decoy for him. I just worry that the Titans haven’t helped the defense at all with Bud Dupree (who benefitted a lot from having TJ Watt on this other side). I think when it’s all said and done the Titans win this division, but I think it might be ugly. I’m passing on the season wins and the division title odds.
All new everything in Jacksonville. In comes Urban Meyer at coach and using the number 1 overall pick in the draft on Trevor Lawrence. Then the new administration follows up by picking Lawrence’s teammate, Travis Etienne, later in the first round. This offense has the potential to be really something special later in the year. The Jags have their entire offensive line returning and their 31st ranked defense is one year older (I guess that’s a plus). This could either work or be a total disaster, I don’t see much in between. With that said, I’m concerned Urban Meyer might be a total donkey and not know how to coach on the professional level. Signs of this are evident when you’re using a 1st rounder on a RB that you want to be a WR when you already had a solid RB (James Robinson) in house. All while having an atrocious defense. I’m willing to take a flier on Jax to win this division. Things could certainly break right for them here with the Colts injuries and the Titans piss poor defense. Sprinkle +600 for Jacksonville to win the AFC South.
I’m not sure where to even start with the Texans. David Culley (who?) is in at head coach. Deshaun Watson wants to be traded, eventhough he recently signed a mega extension. Watson has also been accused of over 20 counts of sexual misconduct, so there’s a strong possibility the NFL will put him on the commissioner’s list and he will miss time. The “starters” on this team are basically second stringers anywhere else in the league, save for Brandin Cooks. The defense finished 30th overall last year and have now lost JJ Watt and LB McKinney. They are not able to stop the run and when you’re in a division with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor this is no bueno. I’m going to do the squarest thing possible here and fade the Texans, even at just 4 wins. It’s almost unconscionable to do so, but I don’t see how this team wins 5 games. Even if they get lucky 3 times (and they might), they would still have to muster 2 more wins to beat me. For God’s sake, they won 4 games WITH Watson last year and there’s no guarantee he plays a snap for them this year. Forgive me if the Tyrod to Anthony Miller connection is not eliciting a tickling sensation in my balls. Texans u4 wins -110.