Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +5.5 (-110)

Yes, I’m on the team that got shut out by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Yes, I’m fading the team that just beat the Chargers and has extra time. Normally, Andy Reid with extra time is an auto-play, however not here. You hear talk about “must-wins” all the time. This is a MUST WIN for the Colts. It just is. Frank Reich is on the verge of losing his job. This team is on the verge of losing their season. This is also the first home game for the Colts. I won’t go into all the stats on Matt Ryan playing in a dome but they are all excellent trends. Plus, the Colts should be getting back Michael Pittman and Darius Leonard this week. What is lost on a lot of the public is just how important those two players are and how missed they were last week. Matt Ryan was basically throwing to no one and the Jags were stacking the box on Jonathan Taylor. The difference this week is there will be an actual WR for Indy. Oh, did I mention that KC historically has struggled to stop the run? The last time these teams met in 2019 (when the Chiefs had a better defense and the Colts had Jacoby Brissett), the Colts ran the ball and won an improbable upset. Now, the Colts have a better QB in Matt Ryan and a better RB in Jonathan Taylor. Throw a little on the moneyline here too. Disclaimer: I would avoid this game if Pittman doesn’t play.