Denver / Buffalo u47.5 (-110)

Sean Payton has to take a rookie QB on the road for his first playoff game. I would have to presume the gameplan is to keep it on the ground and establish the run. On the other end, the Bills are highly explosive but now they are playing the number 4 ranked defense DVOA in the league. I can’t stress this enough, you have to imagine how a game plays out and handicap it that way. I think that Denver knows that the only chance they have to win this game is for them to shut down Buffalo as much as possible. There really isn’t a world where they go score for score with Buffalo and come out on top. Especially on the road. I think Payton tries to make this ugly and Buffalo’s main weakness is up the middle. So Denver will continue to attack them there and with the short passing game. This should result in an under.