NFL Power Rankings & Week 12 Recap
Quick Week 12 RECAP & Thoughts
I had a good week 12. I had a good week 12 in the SuperContest. I could have had the week of my life it wasn’t for the NY Jets.
As someone that has consistently hated and dogged the Jets for years, maybe it’s karma. Aside from knocking me out of my suicide pool – one that was down to 200 people from the original 20,000 people – the Jets also managed to lose me a lot of money this week. Sure, I lost money on them at the book. But the Jets beating the Houston Texans in that game last week cost me someone’s salary for the year. Now, I’m sure you’re thinking, “you should be mad at the Texans”. And, I am. Really mad. But the Jets had no business winning that game. That game should have ended in a tie, similar to the one for the Lions and Steelers. (I know I still would not have covered with the Texans but it would have been fitting). Anyways, I’m done with this now. Just needed to vent.
The Bucs are not infallible. I still think they are the best overall team though.
Cleveland needs to bench Baker Mayfield. ASAP. They are a legit title contender but not with the way he’s playing.
When San Francisco is running their offense and they are generally healthy, they are a top team.
Seattle is donezo. And not just for this year. They need to break this team up. Pete Carroll is almost 70, it’s time for a change. That defense is also one of the worst in football.
How does Dallas lose that game at home to the Raiders? Oh, I know! Their defense is fugazi. While Dan Quinn has made them respectable, they have also benefitted a ton off turnovers – which are luck. Their luck is running out. The offense is still top notch though.
Buffalo still hasn’t shown me shit. Seriously. The Saints are the second legit team they’ve beaten this year and EVERYONE is out on their team. So yea, Buffalo beats up on bad teams.
Urban Meyer isn’t good coaching pro football. I say this because, that game against Atlanta was a winnable game. At home, coming off a bye, playing a bad team. They were never in that game. Ever.
While the Bengals look like the best thing since sliced bread, looks are deceiving. Their o-line is horrible. The defense isn’t anything great either.
I don’t know what the hell the Panthers are doing at QB but Cam ain’t it, chief.
The Packers are the best team in the NFC. This has borne out over the year. Don’t give me that Cardinals shit either.
The Giants are not any good on offense. Maybe Freddie Kitchens can revitalize them but now there’s no more Danny Dimes.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bucs are currently my highest rated team and they are 5.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bucs played the Broncos, I believe they should be 5.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Tampa Bay is playing the Broncos in Denver, according to my Power Rankings, Tampa Bay should be about a 2.5 point favorite (accounting for a Denver 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 6.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Ravens should be a 4.5 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be an 9 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
