NFL Power Rankings Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers and followers! May your day be filled with happy moments, great food and winning wagers!

Since it’s a holiday, I want to do a quick point on each team.

1.       Bills – Still an “over” team, even though there’s still concerns with Josh Allen’s arm. Still the best team in the NFL.

2.       Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes is the MVP of the league. They are never out of a game. I’m still not impressed with their defense.

3.       Eagles – Still the best team in the NFC. The interior of this defense is not as good as it was. They have taken a step back but still very good.

4.       49ers – Everyone’s trendy pick to win the NFC. Yes, they are really good but given they are mostly run first, do not always expect them to cover big numbers.

5.       Bengals – Their defense is better than they’ve showed. This offense can explode every game.

6.       Ravens – I guess they’re good. Hard to tell. I still don’t trust their defense.

7.       Cowboys – This is an elite defense. Head coaching is shaky. I would trust Philly and SF over them in the playoffs.

8.       Dolphins – Love the offense and coaching. Unless they sure up the defense, continue to play their overs.

9.       Titans – Vrabel is a top 3 coach. They have covered a ton of games in a row. Outside of the run game, they don’t do much well.

10.   Vikings – Back down to Earth. This is an average team with a bad defense. When the offense is clicking they can overcome the bad defense.

11.   Patriots – Mac Jones might just stink. Mostly an “under” team with a good defense. Always bet them in good situational spots because…Belichik.

12.   Chargers – Way too much talent to be middle of the road. Decimated with injuries. Hard to play as a favorite but great as a dog. This coach is getting fired at the end of the year.

13.   Bucs – Are they back? Mostly, yes. I think Tom Brady will settle into form and their defense should carry them.

14.   Browns – They are on a downward spiral, even with Watson on the way. The defense is horrid. The offensive line is way too injured.

15.   Seahawks – Obviously better than I thought. This is still not a “good” team. Big issues on both lines.

16.   Jets – Finally made a change at QB. I’m not sure if that will help the team do better offensively, but it will boost morale. Expect max effort this weekend.

17.   Washington – They keep rolling, mostly due to a bad schedule. Defensive help is on the way. They are on the path to the playoffs. Yes, seriously.

18.   Lions – Horrible defense. Sure, they keep winning but are impossible to trust. A must fade against any team with a pass rush.

19.   Giants – The luck might have run out. Way too injured. Will only consider playing on getting a bunch of points.

20.   Falcons – Well coached with poor talent. Can only play getting points in a game they can grind down with their run game.

21.   Colts – Great secondary and a bad offensive line. Only playable in games where they can keep the pace slow.

22.   Broncos – Russ Wilson is no longer good at football. His contract is shaping up to the worst of all time. Even though this might be the best defense in the league, almost totally unbetable unless you are getting over 10 points.

23.   Raiders – Over, over, over. Best played in games that can be shootouts.

24.   Saints – Only playable in games that can be grinded out. Weirdly, an over team.

25.   Packers – Rodgers has a broken thumb? I’m only going to trust them when the spotlight is on. Rodgers seems to play better in those spots.

26.   Rams – Straight trash. Full fade. They’ve already given up on the season. McVay will be gone and so will most anyone else. Full rebuild coming next season, most likely without Stafford.

27.   Cardinals – Kyler Murray is the second worst contract in the league. Only playable getting points against a non-top 10 coach.

28.   Jaguars – I can see a second half improvement. I expect them to play better. I especially expect this young defense to improve.

29.   Panthers – Sam Darnold? My god. They are play ons for the next couple of weeks and then tank mode for the number 2 pick.

30.   Steelers – The offense will steadily get better. I expect the defense to hold up. It’s Mike Tomlin, they will not give up.

31.   Bears – Fields has been a bright spot but now he’s hurt. They may have to shut him down for a while. Still very bad talent all around.

32.   Texans – By far the worst team in the league. Absolutely terrible. They aren’t good in any phase of the game. Now, we are getting Kyle Allen at QB. Can only bet them if they are getting double digits.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Bills are currently my highest rated team and they are 8 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Bills played the Chargers, I believe they should be 8 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Buffalo is playing the Chargers in Los Angeles, according to my Power Rankings, Buffalo should be about a 7 point favorite (accounting for a Chargers 1-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Patriots should be an 8.5 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. If the game was in Carolina, the Patriots should be a 6.5 point favorite. If the game was in Foxborough, the Patriots should be an 11 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.