Tampa Bay Bucs +3 (-120)

If you notice a theme, yes, I am heavy on the NFC South this week. Gimmie the Bucs this week catching +2.5 (+3 with juice) points. While I love everything the Texans have done this year, from CJ Stroud to the coaching staff, I can’t shake the fact that they have been doing almost too good. Remember that stretch where Stroud went the first 5 - 6 weeks of the season without throwing a pick? Pretty unsustainable. I’m not saying he’s not good. I’m just saying if you give NFL defenses long enough, they will find a way and figure a young QB out. The Bucs play excellent run defense, so it will have to be Stroud winning them this game. I really like the Bucs with extra time and not having sold off pieces at the trade deadline. If Baker is able to execute the pass game against a pretty weak Texans secondary, the Bucs should have success. You should even sprinkle a bit on this money line, as the Bucs could certainly win it.