Cincinnati Reds (T. Bauer -R) +112 vs. Atlanta Braves (M. Fried -L)

9/30/20 Best Bet: Today’s MLB-palooza starts off really early with the first NL series to begin this postseason. I’m on the Reds in this game due to this pitching matchup. Trevor Bauer has been flying under the radar this year due to his record (5-4) and his abysmal run support. The Reds in general have just batted miserably this year (.212 AVG / .312 OBP / .403 SLG). Cincy has done it with pitching and nothing is different here. Bauer has an ERA of 1.73 and an xFIP of 3.25. He is better than Max Fried who is sporting an ERA of 2.25 and an xFIP of 4.05. This tells me that the Braves are masking some of Fried’s performance with their potent offense. His record of 7-0 this year certainly tells that story. With no discernible home field advantage due to the lack of fans, I like the +112 number for two evenly matched pitchers. Gimmie the Reds to score just enough to beat the Braves.