San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (+100)

It was right around the middle of the 4th quarter of last week’s Lions / Bucs game, when the Lions were up by two TDs, when I started thinking…what’s the line for the Niners / Lions? I felt it would have to be AT LEAST 7. Had to be. The line opened at Niners -6.5 and I immediately took a taste of San Fran. After watching for a full season, I couldn’t imagine that the Niners, at home, should be favored south of 7. And that was factoring in the Brock Purdy “concerns” and Deebo Samuels’ health. As the week went on, the line eventually went in my favor, before finally getting to -7.5 (+100) after Deebo was cleared to play. I know this is simplistic but….Niners by a million. Seriously. Detroit is a great story and the sportsbooks are factoring the public’s appetite to back them into this number. However, their secondary is trash. It just is. Look at the stats. Baker lit them up for over 300. Stafford for over 350. Nick Mullens threw for over 350 against this secondary. TWICE. Now everyone is scared to back Purdy, an MVP contender for most of the year because they saw one mediocre game, in the rain, coming off a long rest (rust), and losing Deebo Samuel on the first drive. Just stop. I don’t know if the moment is too big for Purdy. This will be his 5th playoff game in two years. This team is loaded and most importantly, Detroit is down one guard and their star center, Frank Ragnow, might not play. The San Francisco D line will have a chance to get to Goff. And that’s how you beat Goff, pressure, mostly up the middle. I’m not even getting into the Niners offense against the Lions D….that’s for another post. I think the Niners roll.