Pittsburgh Steelers (o9 -121/u9 +100) 2020 Preview
The Steelers outperformed their expected value last year. When Ben Roethlisberger went down in game 2, many expected it would be the end of their season. The plan was to roll with Mason Rudolph at QB, however, he was not ready for primetime. The team then went to Duck Hodges, only to go back to Rudolph to end up back with Duck. Even though that sounds like an unmitigated disaster, the Steelers went 8-8 last year. Mike Tomlin put on a masterful coaching performance. This was, in fact, his best coaching performance of his career. I have never been a Mike Tomlin guy. I firmly believe that he won a SuperBowl with Bill Cowher’s team and one another one he had no business winning against Arizona (thanks James Harrison and Santonio Holmes!). But he is a motivator of men; a leader.
Please do not mistake this as a Tomlin pity party. The Steelers had an excellent defense last year (3rd overall in Football Outsiders) that dominated teams upfront and on the perimeter. They win in the trenches and both sides of the line are solid. They even sacrificed a draft pick for this year to have Minkah Fitzpatrick manning the outfield. The Steelers are a good football team. This season and their handicap relies solely on Big Ben. That’s it. If you know how Big Ben is gonna look this year, you can make money on the Steelers. It’s all going to center around him. If he can’t throw well, you won’t get the breakout year from Diontae Johnson or be able to support JuJu and the newly acquired, Eric Ebron, in the passing game. By the way, is JuJu for real? I don’t know if he’s good – his best year came on the opposite side of Antonio Brown. The opposing D’s will key in on the run game if Ben can’t beat them through the air and make the running game listless, even with a good offensive line.
My guess is just as good as yours, as to how Ben will look. He’s coming off of what is effectively, Tommy John surgery. I lean to the negative. I do not think he will be the same guy we saw in 2018 that threw at a 67% completion rate with 34 TDs and 16 INTs. Ben was amazing that year and it would be hard to replicate, even without the injury. As for the rest of the NFC North, the Steelers have an easy schedule this year. They seem to be everybody’s “sleeper” team. Now that the Ravens are everybody’s darling thanks to Lamar Jackson, the Steelers are +350 to win the division. I just think there is just too much variability with this team. They could either make a serious run at the SuperBowl or could be starting Mason Rudloph at points. I will not be looking into the season win total here. However, a smart play if you are positive on Ben’s prospects is to just take the Steelers to win the AFC. Their upside is that high and at +1200, it is definitely a decent payoff. As for me, I expect early hiccups from Ben and a tight defense leading to some lower scoring games.
No Season Total Play.