Green Bay Packers (o8.5 -143/u8.5 +116) 2020 Preview
The Packers went 13-3 last year. Yea, shocking right? They were even in the NFC Championship game, where they got trashed by the 49ers. As they were so close to going to a SuperBowl, the right move would’ve been to pick up some good free agents and draft needs in the offseason. They did none of that. They didn’t get Aaron Rodgers a legit #2 receiver. They added another running and they drafted a QB in the first round. I am down on the Packers this year.
Green Bay was very efficient on offense last year ranking 10th in pass and 4th in rush DVOA. This team had a strategy and a mandate to run the ball. They didn’t deviate from this all year. You’re probably thinking, “why keep running when Rodgers is a top 5 QB?” Well, that’s where you’re wrong. He’s not a top 5 QB. In fact, he’s been in decline over the last few years. A-A-ron finished 20th overall in QBR last year out of 30 qualifying QBs. That’s not good. This team is lead by Matt LaFleur and he’s in the Shanahan school of running the ball as much as possible. Being that they went to a championship game last year, it’s kind of hard to fault his logic. So when they draft Rodgers’ successor, Jordan Love, in the first round and another RB in the 2nd round (when they already have the prolific Aaron Jones), something tells me that this team will run a lot.
They will have to run a lot to slow the clock down. See, the Packers were 27th defending the run DVOA last year. They got gashed any time they faced even a somewhat competent running offense. They really did not improve their run defense this year either. They actually lost Blake Martinez and brought in Christian Kirksey to replace him. Other than that, every thing is basically the same, which is not a complement. I’m not sold. Jaire Alexander and Darnelle Savage are pretty good but other than that, there is not much reason to believe this unit improved.
According to Football Outsiders, the Packers had a Pythagorean expected win total of 9 wins; they won 13. This year, they are lined at 8.5 wins, so inline with what they should have won last year. There are way too many variables for me to consider playing this team: Rodgers could just lose interest if they aren’t winning, they could have such poor WR play that it effects their entire offense, the defense could regress, etc. I want nothing to do with the win total. I also want nothing to do with the division odds (+180). I basically want nothing to do with this team at all. I think the division around them is improved and there’s no feasible way this team makes a long playoff run in the NFC, short of 2014 Rodgers resurfacing.
My plan is to play Packers games unders. I will also look to fade them against heavy running teams (think, Tennessee, 49ers, Steelers, etc.). Do not discount a scenario where Rodgers is done and does not want to be there anymore. In that scenario, expect him to burn it to the ground or have a nagging hamstring for long stretches.
No Season Total Plays. Lean Under 8.5 wins.