Dallas Cowboys (o9.5 -150/u9.5 +123) 2020 Preview
This is the (realest) grossest shit I ever wrote. As an avowed Giants fan, I do not like what I am about to write. The goal in handicapping is finding the fundamental truth, zigging while others are zagging and yes, sometimes going against your emotions. The Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East. It’s not close. This is a team that is a serious title contender, who will almost assuredly win the East. At a win total of 9.5, the Cowboys are poised for a big year. The only thing that could get in their way is something unforeseen.
I’m not going to get into the whole Dak Prescott contract drama here. It’s not worth it. Also, it’s the type of stuff of sports talk radio – go listen to Francesa’s take on it. Dak is playing on the franchise tag, which means he has one good year of OK money and nothing guaranteed after that. I expect him to ball out this year for a new, long-term contract. Zeke is a beast that rarely gets hurt and performs. The receivers? Ridiculous. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and the rookie, CeeDee Lamb. Throw in Blake Jarwin in year 2, getting the job to himself…who are you gonna guard here? How are defenses going to match up with this offense? Dallas was 2nd overall DVOA on offense last year and they GOT BETTER. PFF has their offensive line ranked 3rd. This team is going to put up points in bunches. They play in a division where they get the Giants (and their atrocious defense) twice, a rebuilding Washington twice and a consistently hurt Eagles twice. That’s almost a guaranteed 4 wins.
The Dallas Defense came in ranked 19th DVOA last year but they definitely improved this year. In comes Everson Griffen (4 time Pro-Bowler) and Dontari Poe (2 time Pro-Bolwer) to help DeMarcus Lawrence. If the super-talented but oft-injured linebackers (Leighton Vander Esch, Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith) can stay healthy, they are better than almost any unit in the league. Even if Dallas’ D improves from last year’s average status, their offense should put games out of reach. The Cowboys’ defense will not be asked to carry the load.
I am ON Dallas this year. I have already bet them to win the division (-121) and don’t hate an NFC Conference Winner bet (+700) on them. This team is going to make the playoffs and you could hedge your way into a profit if you take them to win the NFC. Shit, I don’t even hate the -250 for Dallas to make the playoffs. There’s a large amount of juice but outside of a major injury (Dak or Zeke), there’s not really a lot of downside. Shit, even if BOTH Dak or Zeke get injured, they have very capable backups in Andy Dalton and Tony Pollard. Dallas finished last year 8-8 and they were really unlikely. Sometimes you play like a 10 win team in the NFL and you win 8, it happens. I don’t think its gonna happen this year. Ok, I feel dirty. I am gonna go take a shower now.
Season Total Plays: Over 9.5 wins (-150) and To win NFC East (-121). Sprinkle a little on the To Win NFC (+700)