NFL Power Rankings and Week 4 Recap - 10/6/20
NFL Power Rankings
Week 4 RECAP
I’ve been under the weather and late with this but just in time for the first game! Week 4 was…tough. For me at least. A lot of favorites covered (never good if you’re on the sharper sides). The story this past week was that the good teams seemed to cement themselves and the bad teams are awful. And I mean awful.
Let’s start with the NFC Least, I mean East, I guess. The Giants did cover and their defense seems to be punching above it’s weight. But this is a BAD team. They have not scored a TD since Week 2. The Eagles went into San Fran and beat a beat-up Niners team. Serious handicapping note here: if you laid the -7.5 or higher (it got up to -9 at one point!!!), you need to reevaluate your sports betting. Yes, I know the Eagles looked awful all year, but this is a primetime game with the season on the line. You were getting a good Eagles defense against a backup. You either bet the Birds or you laid off. Period. The Washington Professional Football Club of DC eventually got a push against the Ravens but this game was never close. RG Three sticks killed my winning bet with an awful looking pick. And then there’s the Cowboys. Wow. Just wow. This defense went from what I thought to be at least higher middle of the pack to one of the worst in the league. Dallas had a crazy amount of injuries and now rank 24th DVOA. I cannot back this Cowboys team until they get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball. That might mean firing Mike Nolan, it might mean getting personnel back, it might mean the opposing QB breaking their leg…just something. This is foreshadowing btw. I’m on the Giants getting +9.5 this week. God help me.
Over in the NFC North, everything is full of surprises. The Packers look way better than I thought they would and I am eating crow. I really didn’t expect Rodgers to look like the Rodgers from 4 years ago. They are rolling, so it’s a perfect time for a bye?? That’s one way to stop momentum. The Lions who I was super high on cannot hold on to any lead. They looked like world beaters against the Saints until the Saints put up 35 consecutive points against them. Wild. Detroit’s defense is straight up basura and can’t stop the run (32nd ranked DVOA) and are not to be trusted. The Bears certainly look like the team I was high on, even after running into the NFL’s top defense against Indy. This is now an inflection point for the Bears’ season. They cannot run the ball at all. They will be tested tonight against the Bucs run defense and it will be incumbent upon Nagy to make it work. If he can do something special, whether it be Cordarrelle Patterson or some trick plays, he will need to do something if they are to take the next step. If they allow David Montgomery to get in the way of their progress, the Packers will run away with this division. As for the Vikings, they finally got on the board with a win. But I don’t like their chances going into Seattle, especially the contrast between primetime Russ vs. primetime Cousins. I’ll be on the Vikings +7.5 but won’t feel good about it.
The NFC South is going mostly according to plan. The Saints looked mediocre in September and are picking it up in October. I think that Brees has just enough to get this team to the playoffs but that is mostly on the roster and Sean Payton – not because of him. I will have to pick my spots betting this team. The Bucs are beating the teams they are supposed to but don’t look great. Brady looks old. Gronk is not going to be the OJ Howard replacement – Cam Brate is. I will be on the Bears tonight in TNF. The Panthers now have 2 consecutive wins. One more of these and it’s a winning streak! The Panthers D is still a mess and not to be trusted. I will be on completely disrespected Atlanta this weekend. As for Atlanta, their defense needs to get healthier. If they do, I will be on them. If they don’t, I will be off of them. That simple.
Remember when everyone was handing the NFC West to the Cards? Good times…The Cardinals defense is still bottom half of the league, especially against the pass (the NFL is a passing league). Kyler is running around still but not throwing the ball. Well, the NFL is a passing league. If Kliff Kingsbury wants to win, he needs to let Kyler throw. They have been losing to inferior competition. The Seahawks have Russ. That’s it, that’s my handicap of this team. It is damn near impossible to go against him. This past weekend was a perfect situation to fade him (let down spot, long travel, high heat in Miami) and he STILL covered. Dude’s a beast. The Niners lost outright to the Eagles. They need Jimmy G back. Until he is, it is hard to lay big numbers with them, against anybody.
The Pats went into KC, after Cam’s corona scare, and looked baffled by Belichick’s defense. If it wasn’t for some heinous Hoyer turnovers, this could’ve turned out differently. But the Chiefs do what they do – cover. And don’t fool yourself, if the best coach in the history of the NFL thought that Stidham gives them a better chance of winning, he would’ve started him and not Hoyer. Bet accordingly if the Pats / Denver game happens this week. The Jets are the worst team in football. They are a laughingstock. Adam Gase should be fired. The fact that he isn’t says more about this pathetic organization (the worst in all of American pro sports IMO) than it does about the players on this team. I can’t bet on the Jets at all. The line would have to be so comically high for me to consider it – think DraftKings / FanDuel promo high. The Bills on the other hand, have now checked in as a top 4 team in my Power Rankings. They had a tough test – West Coast trip in Vegas – and came up aces! This team is forreal. If Josh Allen can continue to keep up his completion percentage, the sky’s the limit. The Dolphins need to consider bringing in Tua at this point. Yea, they are competitive and all, but Fitzpatrick isn’t the future. However, if he is in the game, they can always cover. Never count them out. Side note: the Fins better hope they were right on Tua, cause Herbert can play – more on that later.
The Browns are 3-1. Just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it? Listen, I thought they were going to be good but they are really living up to their potential. If and only if, they hide Baker Mayfield. He can’t be trusted to not throw a disgusting pick at any time. The loss of Nick Chubb should not be slowing them down. The Steelers had a “bye” this week, so I will say what I’ve been saying – I don’t trust Big Ben yet. Joe Burrow looks like the truth and the Bengals are 4-0 against the spread. Shit, they even won a game last week. Don’t expect that to continue against the Ravens. It might be in the Bengals best interest to sit Burrow this weekend because his O-line might just get him killed. The Ravens easily steamrolled Washington like they were supposed to. The Ravens are good at football.
Tennessee was also on a self-imposed coronabye. At the rate of their positive tests, they may never play a game again. The Colts have the best defense in football and looked ridiculously impressive this weekend going into Chicago and winning (lost me money!). It seems all Rivers has to be is an above average game manager. Well, he’s holding up his end of the bargain. This team will be tough to fade because they are so fundamentally sound. The Jags stink. Don’t let their win on a super hot Florida day against a Colts team that didn’t punt once fool you. The Jags stink. The Texans fired Bill O’Brien. About time! In all seriousness, I sent out a text message at about 3:00pm EST on Sunday telling my friend that I will never bet on O’Brien again. It’s tough to be on bad coaches in the NFL (looking at you Anthony Lynn – more on him below) and O’Brien was bad. Well, this weekend we are about to do an autoplay – the team that fires their coach (Texans) are the team to bet on. Especially when they are playing a team that stinks (Jaguars).
It looks like the Chargers have a real QB. Herbert can play! I was so excited to get him +7.5 this past weekend and should have covered with ease…then Anthony Lynn happened. Fuck is this guy thinking?!? Up by 14 points, on the road, to a better team with a better defense, with about 40 seconds left on the clock and deep in his own territory, he runs an RPO?!? Not kneel on the ball, not just run tackle left or tackle right. Nope! This dude ran an RPO where the backup RB fumbles the ball and Tampa takes it in for the quick TD. Just awful coaching, awful. Some better coach will enjoy Herbert’s promising looking seasons in the NFL. But not Lynn. Anyways, the Chiefs got the job done against the Pats. If that’s what Kermit, I mean Mahomes, can do against a good defense, what’s he gonna do against the Raiders shitty defense? Yea…The Raiders lost again to the Bills. No shame in that. But they aren’t getting any better. Offensively or defensively. I’m fading this team. The Broncos are playing for Trevor Lawrence at this point. But I have to say, things looked dire for them against the Jets for some time on Thursday. Not good.
POWER RANKINGS
If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.
An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 9.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the Bears, I believe they should be 9.5 point favorites. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing Chicago in Chicago, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 6.5 point favorite (accounting for a Chicago 3 point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 9.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 6.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be an 12.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.
It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.
The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.
