NFL Power Rankings

Week 7 RECAP

A fairly straight forward week 6.  

Oh the Giants. Just good enough to make it interesting, yet just bad enough to flub the game away at eh very end. At this point, yes, there’s a possibility the Giants can win the NFC East but if they couldn’t beat a hobbled Eagles team when they got EVERY break (minus the hideous Engram drop at the end), they aren’t gonna win many games. It might be time to trade some pieces and focus on their consistently bad line play. The Eagles beat said Giants. It wasn’t pretty but they are getting healthier. There’s a strong possibility they get Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, Jalen Reagor and Goedert back this weekend. They look to have the inside lane to win this division. The Washington Football Team FC of DC and Maryland beat the Cowboys. Their defensive line is the truth. They are pretty much a bet on team against any weak offensive line. I don’t expect too much from Washington’s offense, as Kyle Allen is still bad. But they are frisky in the right situations. Dallas is an unmitigated disaster. The defense is one of the worst I’ve ever seen (exhibit A: Kyle Allen putting up 25 points against them). Now they are trading pieces on the defense (Everson Griffen to the Lions). They should be trading their defensive coordinator! Anyways, if its DiNucci as QB, this team is a FULL fade. And yes, that means even against the Eagles in a divisional game getting +7.5.

The Packers won in the most public of spots: on the road and laying 3.5. That’s a sign of a good team. I came into the season down on Green Bay but now I have to change my tone. This is what any successful gambler does. Things on the ground change. The successful individual changes with them. I still feel that a team that can run the ball on the Packers and eat up clock can cover a line against them. Be wary of the “easy” number against Minnesota this week. Detroit beat the Falcons thanks to the bonehead move from Todd Gurley scoring that TD. Now, this was karma’s way of paying the Lions backers back. If Atlanta correctly just kneels on that ball and kicks a chip shot the Lions would’ve covered. My takeaway from this game is the Lions can eat up bad defenses, as they’ve done two weeks in a row, but still doesn’t hasn’t proven they can do it against a contender. They seem to be trying to get better with the addition of Everson Griffen but…Matt Patricia is still the head coach. The Chicago Bears have finally come back to earth this week with a primetime loss to the Rams. However, it should be said that no team is as bad as they look in one week. Keep that in mind next week when they face New Orleans – especially if Michael Thomas is not playing. The Vikings didn’t play this week but their moves might have spoken louder than them playing a game. They traded Ngakoue to the Ravens and Danielle Hunter is out for the season So, an already young and bad defense is losing its two biggest pieces…I hate this upcoming Packers / Vikings game.

Tom Brady took the Raiders out to the woodshed this weekend. He was throwing the types of passes I haven’t seen him throw in 5 years this weekend. I’m not sure if this was a product of the bad Raiders defense or he’s finding his groove. I’m treading very carefully, as he is the only quarterback to play this well at his age…ever. The Saints won and didn’t cover, mostly due to missing both starting WRs. They picked apart a Panthers defense that can still be easily exploited. While I thought they could just run right over Carolina, it proved to be Drew Brees doing a lot of the work going 29/36 for 287 yards and two TDs. Atlanta lost again in horrific fashion. They literally can’t even kneel the ball down properly. I’m not sure what to make of this team. They have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball but their defense just can’t get any stops. The coaching change did not help, as this loss was directly attributable to Raheem Morris NOT just kneeling it twice. Yes, Gurley should’ve stopped and not scored but he also shouldn’t have gotten a handoff. If they didn’t have to play a divisional opponent in Carolina in a quick turnaround (Thursday), I would assume they are giving up totally. That might be next week. Let’s see.

The 49ers went from season teetering on the brink to going into Foxborough and dominating the Pats. The NFL is wild like that. The Niners dismantled the Patriots on both sides of the ball. This brings me to something I’ve thought for a while now: Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He’s better than McVay and all the other young coaches. The Niners will always be competitive with him at the helm but they are too beat up to be a serious contender. The Seattle / Arizona was undoubtedly the game of the weekend. And it was really telling that even Russell Wilson’s magic could not make up for the Seahawks defense. I’m going to make a bold statement that I may regret (because betting against Russ is not fun): I cannot back the Seahawks in a game against a competent QB. Not at least until this defense is improved in some fashion. Especially when Jamal Adams is out. The Cards look like a team that is growing. While everyone focuses on Kyler, I’m noticing the defense getting better. Kingsbury is making better decisions. This team may be very scary as we enter into the last half of the year. The Rams beat up on the Bears, who looked like they were having an off night. I’m not making too much of this victory. They handily won a game they were at home for and favored by 6 in. They have not climbed the power rankings.

My question last week of are the Pats a playoff team still holds. I’m going to go one step further, in honor of one of their most famous fans and ask: Are the Pats good? While Cam and the offense looked putrid, it was the defense’s lack of hustle that concerned me the most. Bill Belichick is the greatest defensive coach of all time. I can’t say I ever saw one of his defenses quit like this. There just might not be enough talent on this team. I can’t play the Pats until I see something; anything. The Jets covered an American football spread! But only because the Bills kicker missed a couple of FGs. I was on the Jets last week, as teams don’t just not cover the spread 7 games in a row. The Cowboys will be going for 8 this weekend. Just sayin. I am not going to overreact to the Bills performance on Sunday. Everyone expected some all time shellacking of the Jets but forgot that they play the Pats this week. This week was their true focus. I expect Sean McDermott and company to be ready for the Pats.

The Browns were the toughest beat of the whole weekend. Missing that extra point and not covering the -3.5 was just brutal. Readers of this website should have pushed though, as I gave it out early enough to grab the -3. Still just an awful beat for -3.5 ticketholders. The Browns also lost OBJ for the season. I think this might just be addition by subtraction. For whatever reason, Mayfield seems to play better when Beckham is not on the field. The Browns just need to get their secondary tighter and this is a legit playoff team. The Steelers went into Tennessee, got out to a big lead and almost gave it all back. I have come around on the Steelers after my initial concerns about Big Ben. I will say that the Steelers are not as good as their undefeated record. Don’t fall for the hype. This is a good team not the best team. The Bengals put up a valiant fight against the Browns but their offensive line is still a massive liability. Just now, they had to trade away Carols Dunlap, one of their few viable defensive players. As Joe Burrow continues to look great, this overall team is pretty blah. I expect their fight to wear off as they wear down.

Tennessee should’ve tied the game. Unfortunately, they have a bad defense. Now, that’s just by the eye test, as Football Outsiders puts them in the middle of the pack at #17. Sometimes the eye test helps. In this case, I will feel comfortable with good opposing offenses going up against them. Surprise, the Jaguars still stink. I will say this again, short of the Jets, this is the worst team in football. I will not understand why the “sharps” continue to play on them week to week. I was somewhat impressed by their resilience against the Chargers. But they still lost and didn’t cover. Tells you all you need to know. Houston got blown out again. They were never in the game against the Packers. I think this is a function of how good the Packers are versus how bad Houston is. Maybe I’m being too generous to this Houston team as I have a hard time reading them. I’m just glad they are on a bye this week.

I really liked Denver getting all those points against KC. Seems silly right? I would play that game the same way again. Here’s a teaching moment: divisional underdog, at home, with the better defense and getting a ton of points. You play the underdog. Yes, I know it didn’t work with Denver but an early pick 6 coupled with a quick kick return TD buried Denver in a hole they couldn’t get out of. I expect better days for this scrappy team. So, Justin Herbert is really good right? Yea, he’s the truth. I would absolutely love this team if they didn’t lose a bunch of key pieces to injury and Anthony Lynn was their coach. In fact, if they were healthy and had a respectable coach, this is the type of team that could make a big playoff run. Alas, maybe next season. The Raiders are not as good as everyone thinks, the Raiders are not as good as everyone thinks, the Raiders are not as good as everyone thinks. Derek Carr has played better than expected and yes, they won’t have offensive line issues every week like they had this week. Their defense is not good. Their defense is especially not good against the run. Do not overrate this team because of one win against the Chiefs. Just remember, every team has an off game.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The Chiefs are currently my highest rated team and they are 9 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Chiefs played the Bears, I believe they should be 9 point favorites. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If Kansas City is playing Chicago in Chicago, according to my Power Rankings, KC should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a Bears 3-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Bills should be a 8.5 point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. If the game was in Minnesota, the Bills should be a 5.5 point favorite. If the game was in Buffalo, the Bills should be a 11.5 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1.5 or 2 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.