Green Bay Packers -3 (-105)

Another disclaimer: if you can get -2.5, get it. This might be the best game of the day in the NFL. While I have these teams pretty much evenly ranked and Green Bay is home, so they deserve a homefield advantage, I think it should be a full FG. There’s no Nico Collins and I don’t see how the Texans will be able to win this game without getting separation. Sure, Diggs and Dell will make some catches but I don’t expect explosive plays. Also, Matt LaFleur has really become one of the best coaches in the NFL. Hard for me to fade him. Add in the Texans / Stroud just don’t play that great on the road and you have a recipe for the Packers to control the ball / clock and the game.