NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Quick Takeaways from NFL Week 2:

-Are the Saint for real? Somewhat. The scheme has changed but the personnel is almost exactly the same. Tread lightly.

-The Giants should have won and at bare minimum covered. The Washington secondary is horrific and should be faded every single week.

-The Raiders won a let down game for Baltimore. Do not crown Antonio Pierce the next Mike Tomlin yet.

-The Steelers won another disgusting game. Their defense is good and the offense is bad. Very bad. Russell Wilson will not help when he gets back.

-Carolina benching Bryce Young is good in the short term and silly in the long term (for his development).

-The Colts not being able to stop the Green Bay running game when it was obvious that’s what GB wanted to do is egregious. Gus Bradley should be faded until he’s fired.

-The 49ers might be too hurt to overcome their injuries. Losing at Minnesota could have been a fluke but their long term prospects have taken a hit with all the injuries.

-Jacksonville needs to try something different on offense, and soon, or Pederson will be fired. Trevor Lawrence might not be as good as previously thought.

-The Patriots are not good. They were in two good spots. Fade for the rest of the year. This team can’t win 4 games total (yes, even with Drake Maye).

-Tennessee has a sneaky good defense. Will Levis will eventually get benched given his turnovers.

-Detroit should have won AND covered that game against the Bucs. 7 trips into the Tampa redzone with a total of 9 points is damn near impossible.

-The Rams season is effectively over. Do not be surprised if they try to compete but it will be doubtful. Jimmy G will be the QB at some point this year to save Stafford’s health. Stafford might even retire.

-Cincinnati cannot stop the run. Take this into account in your handicaps.

-Something is missing with the Texans. I don’t know what it is but something is off. There was 0 reason for them not covering that game. It could be luck but something’s off.

-The Eagles are not as bad as they seemed on MNF and the Falcons are not as good.

POWER RANKINGS

If you are unfamiliar with the way power rankings work, here is a crash course. Power rankings are a way to show how strong or weak a team is from an “average” team. This is a system to derive my own point spreads. By having this system, I can say, “this line is off” due to my power rankings.

An easy way to explain this is using an example from the list below. The 49ers are currently my highest rated team and they are 7.5 points better than an average team. The average team is 0 points. So, from my power rankings if the Niners played the Jets, I believe they should be 7.5 point favorites on neutral field. There are variables that are not inherent in this list, such as home-field advantages, injuries and other unknown intangibles. The list assumes point differential on a neutral field. If San Francisco is playing the Jets in New York, according to my Power Rankings, Baltimore should be about a 6 point favorite (accounting for a New York 1.5-point home field advantage). Another example from the list below is the Ravens should be a 16 point favorite over the New England Patriots on a neutral field. If the game was in New England, the Ravens should be a 14 point favorite. If the game was in Baltimore, the Ravens should be an 18 point favorite, according to my power rankings.

It is important to keep in mind that all home field advantages are not the same. In theory, I think Green Bay’s homefield advantage is probably 3.5 points, while the Los Angeles Chargers are more like 1 or 1.5 points. Another caveat is to be mindful or intangible factors, such as motivation, coaching issues (firings / hirings), travel, etc.

The most important concept in handicapping sports is you should ONLY bet if you DISAGREE with the line. There is no value if you agree that the line given by the sportsbook is correct. Why would you bet and lay juice (-110) on something that you think is correct? Literally, the odds are not in your favor. If you want to bet any way, that is degeneracy. While I don’t encourage degeneracy, I do believe that as a handicapper, the goal is to benefit off of others’ degeneracy.