Las Vegas Raiders (o7 -110/u7 -110) 2020 Preview
The Las Vegas Raiders: it just has a strange ring to it. After spending decades in California, the Raiders have set up shop in Sin City. Finally, an NFL team in the sports gambling capital of America. The NFL, where the TV contracts are pricey and the hypocrisy is cheap. Jon Gruden is back at the helm for season three of “The Contract” and this is now officially, fully, his team. Gone are (most of) the remnants of the old regime. This was supposed to be the year this team took a turn of for the better. First year in a new city with a shiny spaceship-looking stadium. However, it’s the same old Raiders.
Let’s get this out of the way: the Raiders went 7-9 last year and they haven’t gotten significantly better. David, I mean, Derek Carr is still around at QB, but since he has been mediocre for his 6 years in the league, the team has brought in Marcus Mariota to challenge him. Josh Jacobs is solidified as the lead RB after a solid year with Jalen Richard as his backup. The receiving corps sports Tyrell “the gazelle” Williams, Hunter Renfrow and the newly-added, Henry Ruggs. The late career bloomer, Darren Waller, is the main TE. This offense was the 9th best DVOA in the NFL. It’s the defense that’s the problem. The 31st DVOA ranked unit from 2019 comes into this year adding Corey Littleton at LB and a bunch of rookies. Damon Arnette - CB (who?) was selected with the 1st round pick, along with Amik Robertson – CB and Tanner Muse – S. So basically the 2nd worst defense from last year added a good linebacker and some draft picks. Not good. Especially not good in a division with Patrick Mahomes / Tyreek Hill and a bunch of other talented receivers (Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy). This defense is going to get burned, repeatedly.
The Raiders didn’t bring in Mariota and sign him to real money (2yrs/$17.6M) if they were content with Carr. It’s no secret that Carr and Gruden aren’t simpatico. With a good, not great (11th Ranked by PFF) offensive line, Derek Carr will have to show out to keep his job. Expect to see Mariota for stretches this year. The eventual QB controversy along with the horrible defense me has me wanting to fade this team. Also throw in the first year in a new city, after a move, where all the players and staff have to relocate their families – in the middle of a pandemic! – and you have a recipe for distractions. Finally, being in the AFC West will do this team no favors given their matchup deficiencies. I’m taking the under. Even with the consistency of the coaching staff and key players, which is a plus during COVID, the upside of the Raiders just seems less to me than Denver. Their variability is much less than the Chargers (who, if things break right, could contend for a title). And aren’t even in the same conversation as the SuperBowl favorite Chiefs. Due to a nice scheduling quirk, the Raiders play the Panthers week 1 and are 1 point favorites. I love the Raiders in this spot against a shitty Panthers D and theoretically, they should look good. Great, that’s the first thing the public will see and have that image burned in their heads. This should give me value as their next 4 games are Saints, at Patriots, Bills and at Chiefs. I’m gonna fade these guys like an old pair of Levi’s. Looks like the Vegas team is gonna be a gambling favorite this year.
Under 7 wins -110.