Tennessee Titans (o8.5 -130/u8.5 +107) 2020 Preview
When we last saw the Titans they were marching towards an improbable run in the playoffs. They knocked off the Ravens and were the last team to play the Tom Brady Patriots. Ryan Tannehill took over in the middle of the year and turned the Titans season around. Along with rushing champion, Derrick Henry and dynamic rookie, AJ Brown, the Titans overachieved. Tennessee comes into this year hoping to recreate last year’s magic. They may be poised to find out that good teams get figured out and great teams continue to thrive in the NFL. Are the Titans merely good or are they great?
It’s hard not to like the Titans. They aren’t one of those major media market or perennially popular NFL teams. In fact, most people probably have no opinion of the Titans. So when you see them slaying the Ravens and the Patriots and keeping it competitive early with the Chiefs, you think, this team has “something”. What is that something? They finished last year with the 16th ranked defense DVOA (average) and the 6th ranked offense DVOA. Tannehill finished the year with a 62.2 QBR, which was good enough for 9th overall. This is a solid team that gets no love because they are doing it mostly with the run, solid defense and a good head coach. Mike Vrabel might just be the most successful coach off of the Belichick tree (in the pros! Yes, I know Nick Saban exists). The Titans also play in the bland and consistently changing AFC South.
8.5 wins is the perfect line for the Titans, who I believe are a little bit better than average football team. Tennessee is helped by having to play the Jaguars twice – essentially two free squares and having the second easiest schedule coming into this year. I am a believer in Tannehill, who has now shown that he could be productive in both an Adam Gase and a Mike Vrabel system. I love AJ Brown and truly believe Jonnu Smith will take the next steps this year. The team invested in Adam Humphries, so expect him to get some burn. Anything from first round pedigreed-Corey Davis will just be a bonus. I expect the defense to remain average, as they really didn’t make too many moves – save, for bringing on DE Vic Beasley and CB Jonathan Joseph. The additions are second tier players and shouldn’t move the needle, even for a defensive minded head coach.
I will be on the Titans this year in underdog situations. Obviously, factors matter and yes, I would back any team as a favorite or a dog. I just think that the team’s ethos is that of an underdog. The team you don’t see coming. I can’t bet this win total though – not enough value. The Texans are still talented and the Colts are division favorites. With 7 teams now eligible for the playoffs, a -134 for the Titans to make it is just too steep. I’d rather bet this team week to week. As for fantasy and last year’s rushing title leader, I’m going to be cautious of Henry this year. He had a crazy workload last year and historically, that is not repeatable.
No Season Total Play. Lean Over 8.5 wins.