Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-110)

No Anthony Richardson. No Jonathan Taylor. An abhorrent defense. Really not much to like about the Colts in this one. However, who are the Jaguars to be laying 3.5 points in a divisional game. Even at home. Look, I can make a case these teams are about equal this year. I think Joe Flacco is an upgrade, at least in the pass game, against Jacksonville. I am very much of a believer in “running backs don’t matter”, so no JT, no problem. The Jags are are dead f’n last against the run DVOA, so Trey Sermon will do fine. Even if I give the Jags 1.5 for homefield (I do NOT believe they have a 1.5 homefield, it’s more like 1 point), I can’t get to 3.5. Gimmie the Colts.