Cleveland Browns +9.5 (-110)

:They say the best bets are those that are the toughest to make. It doesn’t get much tougher than this. Taking the Browns against the clear cut best team in football without Deshaun Watson just feels horrible. But let me lay out my case. This is a letdown spot for the 49ers after coming off the win of the year thus far in the NFL, in primetime. The Niners also blew out the Cowboys, you always want to fade a team after they blew someone out. There will be weather in Cleveland today, mostly wind, which is a recipe to fade an offense. Brock Purdy’s precision timed offense might not have as much success today. And that is mostly because of Cleveland’s number one ranked defense in efficiency. I’m not talking about their record or counting stats - those are for simpletons. I’m talking about statistically, play to play, this is the best defense in the league. Oh, a Jim Schwartz defense is historically 8-1 ATS against a Kyle Shanahan offense over their careers. Listen, I would LOVE this if it were Watson, however, if I’m getting over a touchdown in this game, I don’t care if the QB was PJ Tucker (not PJ Walker). I’m making the ugly play today, join me.