Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)

This is a game that I liked all week but did not love the +3. Now that we are able to get +3.5, I think it is a play for me. The Panthers are arguably the worst team in the NFL. I have the Cardinals and Bears worse but that is due to talent and not record. As I’ve stated on this site multiple times, records matter little and the overall team matters more. In this game, I am getting a winless team coming off of a bye, historically a very strong trend. I am getting this team at home, which is very helpful. Finally, I am getting them as a home dog getting over a field goal - yahtzee! Look, I understand that taking Bryce Young over Stroud looks like a massive mistake and it may bear out to be, in the long run. However, Young is talented and certainly worthy of that #1 pick. He has something to prove in this game and he will be max motivated. My angle in this handicap is after 6 weeks of futility, Frank Reich is handing off play calling duties to the Offensive Coordinator, Thomas Brown. This will disorient the Texans, as they will essentially be getting a new look at the Panthers offense. According to my power rankings, this game is lined just about right but the biggest factor here is having the Texans be a road favorite of more than a FG to anyone is a bridge too far. Gimmie the Panthers with the hook.