Houston Texans (o7.5 -106/o7.5 -115) 2020 Preview
After yet another playoff appearance last season that saw the Texans lead the eventual SuperBowl champions by 24 points, to only lose by 20. Houston is looking to win the AFC South again in 2020, which would mark their 5th division win in 6 years. In what certainly seems like the last gasp for his job by Bill O’Brien, he has traded DeAndre Hopkins for David Johsnon and brought in Brandin Cooks. With a top 5 quarterback in Deshaun Watson, can the Texans even go .500?
Now, I know what you’re thinking, O’Brien caught a ton of shit from EVERYONE for trading Hopkins for David Johnson and rightly so. However, keep in mind that his eventual replacement, Brandin Cooks, is no slouch. He’s had 1,000 yard season in 4 out of the last 5 seasons. Also, the rap on Cooks is he is always hurt but he’s played 16 games 4 out of the last 5 season. I’m not saying he’s Nuk. What I’m saying is, he’s not a bad replacement and should be a consistent target for Watson. If Will Fuller stays healthy, he’s a producer and historically, Watson’s favorite target (big IF). While David Johnson was benched last year in Arizona, he was productive early on when he did play. Now, even if Johnson is a total bust and he certainly might be, I think Duke Johnson is very talented and could be a 3-down back. Unfortunately, Bill O’Brien is an idiot and refuses to use him as such. Regardless, this Texans offense finished last year as the 16th overall DVOA (perfectly average) and I believe have maintained the status quo.
The problem with the Texans is the defense. They finished 26th overall DVOA last year but played much worse according to the eye test. Yes, they are getting JJ Watt back, who missed half the year last year. Yes, Whitney Mercilus is back too. But it’s the secondary that’s an issue. This secondary is being ranked 25th by PFF heading into this season. This unit is going to get burned. Bradley Roby is washed. Gareon Conley and Eric Murray are average at best. And that’s really the handicap of this Texans team: can they be average? With a win total of 7.5, you would need them to be average to go over. With a top 5 QB in Watson, being average should be no problem. However, I don’t Bill O’Brien to coach up this team. Their division is better too. Aside from the Jags, who should be the worst team in football, the Colts and Titans are solid teams that should be vying for the division title.
Due to their easy schedule, I lean over on the 7.5 wins for the Texans but I won’t be making a play. Instead, I would probably play them getting points against more run heavy teams. Against more pass heavy teams, I’m expecting shootouts as I am very low on their secondary. Another tip I’ve learned from betting the AFC South is make sure you take the points in intradivision games. These teams always play each other hard and I expect that to continue this year. Also, I expect O’Brien to lose his job when this team doesn’t make the playoffs.
No Season Total Play. Lean Over 7.5 wins.