12/9/21 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Bucs -3 (-120)

Shocker: I like Tom Brady at home going against a Bills team on a short week. Off of my pure power ratings alone, I make this line Tampa -3. That’s not counting for the homefield advantage. Brady plays much better at home, evidenced by the only cover he had on the road being just a couple of weeks ago against Indy. As for the Bills, I’m not sure they are top 5 good. What are their big wins this year? The Chiefs, that’s it. I’m not saying the Bills are bad. I’m saying they shouldn’t be in the same conversation as the Packers and Cardinals. The one thing that worries me is that the Bucs strength is their run defense and the Bills don’t/can’t/won’t run at all. I’m going to guess that Todd Bowles knows this and will adjust his defense accordingly. Gimmie Tampa with 1.5 points of value in this one.