AFC West Preview
Kansas City Chiefs (o12.5 +110/ u12.5 -130) -250 to win AFC West
Los Angles Chargers (o9.5 -110 / u9.5 -110) +450 to win AFC West
Denver Broncos (o8.5 -150 / u8.5 +120) +600 to win AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders (o7 -120 / u7 +100) +2200 to win AFC West
It’s truly the wild wild west, as the best two divisions in football reside on the left coast. Most people have been giving the title of best division to the NFC West, however, I disagree. The AFC West is absolutely loaded. There’s a real scenario where three playoff teams can come from this division. There’s young talent, great QBs, Las Vegas, new coaches, great coaches and great coaches that should be announcers! This division has it all. There’s a lot to unpack here, let’s dive in.
The odds on favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy is the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve been to the SuperBowl the last two years and won one (and were one offsides away from 3 consecutive SuperBowls). Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in football. He’s quickly becoming the face of the league. Andy Reid is considered one of the best coaches in the league (consistently top 3). Kelce is one of the best TEs. Tyreek Hill is one of the best WRs. You notice a pattern here? In the high flying new NFL where its all passing, this team has been dominant. The defense has basically been good enough to keep them winning games. Not dominant (22nd overall DVOA) but not bottom of the league. If you recall, KC went some crazy stretch of winning games and NOT covering, going 7-9 against the spread last year. There’s no narrative I need to tell myself about a team where their star QB is talking about going undefeated. Shit, they could go undefeated. Mahomes can also get hurt and this team will be in the cellar in their division. The NFL is fickle and the best we can do is bet the probabilities. The probabilities of an NFL team being dominant for four consecutive years and surpassing the league’s highest win total is not very common (save for the Pats). I can’t bet the over on KC. I really want to bet the under 12.5 but betting against greatness sucks. I’m leaning under and may consider fading KC in certain spots but I’m out on the futures markets. If they stumble early on, I would consider laying more than +500 for them to win the title. But at the current odds, there’s just not enough value in tying up your money (or credit at a credit shop).
So let me get this straight, the Chargers manage to find a gem at QB on a rookie contract, then go on to fire one of the worst coaches in football to hire a bright, young defensive mind that will solidify the defense and leave the offense to a Sean Payton disciple. Oh, and they’re loaded with talent. Keenan Allen is playing the Michael Thomas role in this Joe Lombardi offense and should see success. While Austin Ekler is playing the Alvin Kamara role. Mike Williams is playing for a contract and the ever boring Jared Cook is in to replace Hunter Henry. This offense will be fine. The offensive line was completely remade and is coming in to the season ranked 9th (Establish the Run). The defense has stars (Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Chris Harris) and massive upside guys (Asante Samuel, Linval Joseph). The real handicap is whether Justin Herbert takes a leap forward, remains steady or regresses. Normally, you would love to bet on the young QB taking the second year leap but how do you account for the massive success young Herbert has already had? You also need to factor in this division. You have the Chiefs lined with the highest win total and the wiseguy darling, Broncos. Shit, the Raiders have a top 10 offense. Here’s what I know, things change quick in the NFL. The Chargers don’t have a ton of depth and historically have had tons of injury issues. However, you can’t bet expecting injuries. You must remember, injuries are random. Do some player or teams have a higher possibility of getting hurt due to their prior injuries? Maybe. Let’s go under the assumption that the Chargers remain healthy and won’t need to rely on their depth. Well, then I love this team. I love the value. I love getting rid of the biggest dolt of a head Coach (RIP Anthony Lynn) and replacing him with a defensive wizard. I love upgrading the offensive line to help a young QB. The defense is healthy, for now. And, KC can’t consistently be overachievers every single year. All In. Chargers o9.5 -110. Chargers to win AFC West +450. Chargers to win AFC +1600. Chargers to win SuperBowl +3000. Brandon Staley Coach of the Year +1000 (I bet this earlier at a better number but still like it).
Denver was a trendy pick towards the over earlier this summer during the Aaron Rodgers drama. Most bettors thought that Rodgers would leave Green Bay and find his home in Denver, the natural fit for him. Well, Rodgers is running it back one last time with the Packers and the Broncos had a heated QB competition between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. Teddy won the very unexciting battle. This is a direct result from Vic Fangio wanting to preserve his job. See, the fanny pack enthusiast is tied at +750 with Mike McCarthy for first coach to lose his job. So, Fangio went “safe” with Teddy. While “safe” sucks for fantasy, it’s great for gambling. Teddy Covers is his name and Mr. Two Gloves has a 35-14 ATS record as a starter. This is good. The skill players are good: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Noah Fant, etc. The defense is top notch (13th DVOA last year) and gets back Von Miller, while drafting Patrick Surtain, the top CB prospect in the draft. Fangio brought in old pal, Kyle Fuller to add strength to strength (Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller) in the secondary. I fully expect with the 3rd ranked Defensive Line (Establish the Run), this is going to be a top 5 defense with Fangio at the helm. Even the offensive line, their “weakness” is going to be middle of the pack and is coached by the best O line coordinator in the league with Mike Munchak. This is another one of those thought exercises we need to as bettors. If you keep every player at their position in the entire league and just take out the quarterbacks, do the Broncos have the best roster in the NFL? They are absolutely top 3 or 4. Now I get a QB who doesn’t make major mistakes and is a cover machine. A coach fighting for his job. The only thing holding them back is the upside of Bridgewater. I think he can manage to be good enough and I have enormous value here. Even at a win total that I think has been bet up, I love this. I will be on Denver this year. Broncos o8.5 -150. Broncos to win AFC +2200. Broncos to win SuperBowl +4500.
The Raiders. What to make of the Raiders? Derek Carr is coming off his statistically best season last year. This offense is sneaky good. Say what you will about Jon Gruden…and I have, you can’t deny that this offense will be a problem for opposing defenses. Their biggest concern will be their completely remade offensive line. Vegas let go three starters from last year’s line and brought in Alex Leatherwood through the draft. Aside from having an awesome name, Leatherwood and company will be going up against some tough competition this year in the AFC West. All the defensive lines for their opponents are either top notch or very good. This will be a task to keep Carr upright. Also, the WR corps are largely unproven. Ruggs was a 1st round pick and Edwards was a 3rd rounder. We all know Darren Waller is going to be a plus as a Tight End but I’m not sold the duo of Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. Especially behind a brand new line. The real problem is this defense stinks. Gus Bradley is in to try and coach this unit up, but it is very devoid of talent. As a collective, they finished 28th DVOA last year. They did gain Yannick Ngakoue but have a bunch of other shlubs on their defensive line. The secondary is downright disgusting, boasting Casey Heyward as the only good piece. It’s gonna be a tall task to try to stop the offenses in the division with these cast of characters. I can’t cosign any team in today’s NFL that has a secondary this bad with little ability to rush the passer. I generally think Jon Gruden is not the best decision maker and has been a zero from the personnel point of view. He is an offensive genius and that’s worth something but you don’t stop Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert with more offense. I’m heavily leaning under with this team. Do watch out for them as home dogs on Monday Night to open the season. Then fade them…