New England Patriots (o8.5 -143 / u8.5 +118) 2020 Preview

The Tom Brady era is over. After 19 years as a Patriot, he’s gone down to the Northeast retirement center in the sky – Flori-duh. And now, Bill Belichik will have to prove that he can “win” without Brady. Reality check: he’ll be fine. Belichik is the GOAT coach. He does things that other coaches wouldn’t dare do: bench a starter for a SuperBowl, go for it on 4th down from his own 20 yard line, film and tape other teams’ practices…He’s an innovator.

The Pats were ready to go into the year with Jarret Stidham as the starter (Belichik’s version of throwing his nuts on the table). However, that got derailed when they got Cam Newton for essentially free. If Cam Newton is healthy, he’s better than Tom Brady is now. This could potentially be a huge positive for the Patriots. Now let’s discuss the negatives. The set of skill position players on this offense are no bueno. Julian Edelman is 34 years old. Is N’Keal Harry good? Is N’Keal Harry mediocre? Can Sony Michel make it through a season? The Pats have 8 players that opted out due to COVID – Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung are huge losses to their defense.

The Pats will be a solid team this year but expect a slow start. They normally get out of the gate slowly but now with no preseason, a new QB in a new system and new personnel, I think the Pats are a fade the first few weeks. The Bills are now the envy of the division and this should help the Pats towards the end of the season motivationally. Cam has something to prove. Belichik has something to prove. I plan to be backing the Pats down the stretch. I can’t touch the season win total though. This number is lined just right. With no fans in the stands, the Pats lose a good home field advantage. There’s too much that could go wrong here for me to make a play. If you are OK tying your money up for a while, go out and get the Dolphins +6.5 for Week One now. That number is going to go down by kickoff.

From a fantasy angle, I expect James White to catch a ton of balls this year. I’m operating under the assumption that Cam’s shoulder will not be the same again. I expect a bunch of short passes to White and Burkhead. I am also staying away from the Pats defense this year. Belichick always finds a way but there’s a lot of moving pieces with all the opt outs.

No season total play.