2022 AFC North Preview
Baltimore Ravens (o9.5 -160 / u9.5 +130) +140 to win AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (o10 +100 / u10 -120) +170 to win AFC North
Cleveland Browns (o8.5 +110 / u8.5 -140) +380 to win AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (o7.5 +100 / u7.5 -120) +1000 to win AFC North
The AFC North is vying to be one of the top divisions in the game. You have the SuperBowl loser, Cincy, the perennial winner, Pittsburgh, the tough guy, Baltimore and the talented Browns. Plenty of questions here but its important to understand that there is no need to have a strong feeling on every team headed into the year. Your opinions should shape and form as the season progresses and as you see data. For now though, let’s get into what is probably the NFL’s most interesting division.
Lamar Jackson is coming into the year playing for a contract. This is a scary proposition for opponents facing a running quarterback – one that will do anything to secure the bag. Granted he has no one outside of Mark Andrews to throw it to. There are signs Bateman could be good, but a No. 1? Well, maybe with their TE focused passing, the Ravens don’t need to define true roles. They wanna get it done with running and they will be getting back a healthy JK Dobbins, as well as Gus Edwards. On the defensive side, gone is defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale. Wink had a super aggressive scheme that made it seem the Ravens always had a nose for the ball. They will be getting healthy too, as every single member of their secondary missed serious time last year. I expect the Ravens to probably win this division. Their record last year is not indicative of their talent. Way too many injuries last year dulled their chances. I liked this division winner number better when Deshaun Watson’s future was still up in the air. But given the choices, this is the bet I will stick with for this year. I expect to be on the Ravens moreso than not this year. This is worth a tiny sprinkle on the SB at 20-1. Ravens +140 to win AFC North. Ravens +2000 to win Super Bowl.
The Browns are a team that has the upside of winning a championship. No, really. They are talented at the skill positions, have one of the two best D-linemen in the league, a solid secondary and up until recently a strong offensive line. The addition of Deshaun is what was supposed to put the Browns over the top. He was summarily suspended for 11 games and now, they are stuck starting Jacoby Brissett. Season ending injuries to two centers will throw their offensive line off whack. This was supposed to be a strength of this team, allowing the 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to do their thing but now they are stuck starting a third stringer in one of the most important positions on the field The main issue isn’t just Brissett, who could be fine in chunks, it’s that even when Watson does come back – in their 12th game, he will have effectively not played for around 2 years. Their will most likely be rust and he won’t have much time to acclimate. There’s even an outside chance the Browns make a major move and pick up Jimmy G. If they do that, their season win total Over is a smash. Overall, I’m just being cautious with this team. I know that outside of the QB they have a top 3 or 4 roster in the league, however, QB is so important. The way I’m playing this is to swing for the fences. It is not inconceivable that Jacoby holds down the fort (or a miracle in getting Jimmy G) until Watson gets back. If the Browns are 6-5 at the time or even 5-6, they will have a legit shot at the playoffs. If by then Watson is grooving, sky’s the limit. They just injected a top 4 QB into their Kevin Stefanski offensive system. Shoot for the moon. Browns +5000 to win SuperBowl.
Am I the only Trubisky truther out there? I have said for a while, that Mitch in the right system could get it done. I’m not sure if Pittsburgh is that system. I’m not even so sure that before long we see Kenny Pickett take over at QB. The main issue with the Steelers is their shitty offensive line. PFF has the Steelers graded as the 30th worst offensive line in the league coming into the season. It helps that they will be getting Trubisky back there who is infinitely more mobile than Big Ben was. No matter who’s back there, they will be running for their life. Expect Najee Harris to have about the same season he had last year. A ton of attempts with low efficiency. It seems that George Pickens is emerging out of their receiver corps, which is good and builds upon a strength. The defensive line is very solid and one of the best in the business. I’m not sold on the secondary, outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pitt has always won because Mike Tomlin doesn’t take any shit. I’m sure he will run a tight ship and get the most out of these guys, in what will mostly be, underdog roles. I just don’t know if their offensive line will be so bad, especially in this division, where all the opposing defensive lines will be credible, that the QB won’t stand a chance. I feel like this might be Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. Steelers u7.5 -120.
The Cincinnati Bengals really made it to the Super Bowl last year. This offense and more namely, Joe Burrow, put this team on their back and just willed them into the title game. Even with a coach I think is below average, they found a way. Now they come into this year and have addressed all their deficiencies from last year. They picked up sorely needed pieces on the O-line and secondary. They still have the two best receivers on the same team. Mixon is an explosive weapon and the defense played great last year under Lou Anarumo. You can make a case the Bengals really filled their holes and are ready to take the next step. The old wisdom is to fade the Super Bowl loser and I really want to. They won a good amount of close games last year and that might revert back to the mean. As I mentioned, I am no fan of Zac Taylor and this is a TOUGH division. However, the team did certainly improve. I can’t take this team to win over 10 games. Plus, the AFC is so stacked, I don’t think they get through the gauntlet again like they did last year. I will monitor the Bengals throughout the season and play them where appropriate.