1/21/22 Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +5.5 (-120)

I’m on the Niners again this week. Full disclosure, I bet this at +4.5 as soon as the line came out. I thought that was a fair line. Then, the line kept moving up! I couldn’t believe it. I figured that with the advantage the Niners have in running the ball against a Packers team that is 28th overall DVOA against the run is enough. Couple that in with the fact that Shanahan owns LaFleur and all of Aaron Rodgers’ missteps in the playoffs and I thought something had to be wrong. It seems that Jimmy G’s health was of concern and there was talk of him possibly missing the game. The uncertainty set the number. Here’s what I am certain of, with Garrapolo starting, I love taking the 5.5. Rodgers besting this weak secondary is definitely a concern, but as long as everyone is healthy (including Bosa and Warner), I like for the Niners to keep it competitive. I also suspect we see Trey Lance in some form in this game, just not as the starter.