Baltimore Ravens (o11 -115/u11 -106) 2020 Preview
The Ravens were anointed to win the SuperBowl last year, until the Titans happened. The emergence of Lamar Jackson as MVP from “project quarterback” was the main storyline last season. Now, expect the headlines to read: “Jackson can’t win the big game”. Jackson is key to handicapping the Ravens this year. If the league has figured out the ultimate cheat code at QB, the Ravens might fall short again this year. The season win total is as high as win totals normally go at 11.
The Ravens are in one of the toughest divisions in football, however, this season they have one of the easiest schedules. In fact, they have the easiest schedule against the run this coming year. This is helpful, as the Ravens were the run heaviest team (57.5% of plays) in the NFL in 2019. This is where their strength lies. Jackson can tuck the ball and take off at any time. Mark Ingram is as reliable as they come in a run-heavy script. Now, they added college sensation J.K. Dobbins, while retaining Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. The Ravens are a good, consistent team that excels at the facets that are needed to win football games: defense, running and special teams. Combine this with one of the best coaches in football (John Harbaugh) and you have a team poised to make a long run.
The Ravens have something that will be coveted this year: consistency. This team ranked 4th in defense last year according to Football Outsiders and then brought in Calais Campbell. Almost the entire offense is back, save Marshall Yanda. The coaching staff is all in tact. I expect the Ravens to have some trouble early in the year with games against the Browns, Texans and Chiefs. The schedule does get easier from there but I worry about defensive coordinators in the league figuring them out. As good as Jackson is, other run-heavy QBs have been figured out. The NFL eventually catches on, it always does. Anyone remember the Wildcat? Right.
I cannot touch the over here, as it is high, however, I can’t play the under either, given the schedule and raw talent. I’m going to take a pass completely on the Ravens this year, as there is no value to betting any futures on this team. The Ravens are a public team coming into this year. My one bit of advice is, do NOT expect Jackson to repeat his season from last year. He threw for a 9% TD percentage. That’s insanity and almost certainly not repeatable. Do not spend a pre-3rd round fantasy draft pick on Lamar in a normal league. As for winning the “big game”, I do expect the Ravens to win a playoff game this year (depending on opponent) and would gladly take any extra value provided by the narrative that Lamar is not clutch.
No Season Total Play.